气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Twenty-first-century climate change hot spots in the light of a weakening sun

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0059.1
	Twenty-first-century climate change hot spots in the light of a weakening sun
	Spiegl T.; Langematz U.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	3431
结束页码	3447
卷号	33 期号:9
英文摘要	Satellite measurements over the last three decades show a gradual decrease in solar output, which can be indicative as a precursor to a modern grand solar minimum (GSM). Using a chemistry-climate model, this study investigates the potential of two GSM scenarios with different magnitude to counteract the climate change by projected anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through the twenty-first century. To identify regions showing enhanced vulnerability to climate change (hot spots) and to estimate their response to a possible modern GSM, a multidimensional metric is applied that accounts for-in addition to changes in mean quantities-seasonal changes in the variability and occurrence of extreme events. We find that a future GSM in the middle of the twenty-first century would temporarily mitigate the global mean impact of anthropogenic climate change by 10%-23% depending on the GSM scenario. A future GSM would, however, not be able to stop anthropogenic global warming. For the GHG-only scenario, our hot-spot analysis suggests that the midlatitudes show a response to rising GHGs below global average, while in the tropics, climate change hot spots with more frequent extreme hot seasons will develop during the twenty-first century.AGSM would reduce the climate change warming in all regions. The GHG-induced warming in Arctic winter would be dampened in a GSM due to the impact of reduced solar irradiance on Arctic sea ice. However, even an extreme GSM could only mitigate a fraction of the tropical hot-spot pattern (up to 24%) in the long term. © 2020 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Gas emissions; Global warming; Greenhouse gases; Sea ice; Tropics; Anthropogenic climate changes; Anthropogenic global warming; Arctic sea ice; Chemistry-climate models; Extreme events; Satellite measurements; Seasonal changes; Solar irradiances; Climate models; carbon emission; climate change; extreme event; greenhouse gas; twenty first century
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171504
作者单位	Institute of Meteorology, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Spiegl T.,Langematz U.. Twenty-first-century climate change hot spots in the light of a weakening sun[J],2020,33(9).
APA	Spiegl T.,&Langematz U..(2020).Twenty-first-century climate change hot spots in the light of a weakening sun.Journal of Climate,33(9).
MLA	Spiegl T.,et al."Twenty-first-century climate change hot spots in the light of a weakening sun".Journal of Climate 33.9(2020).