气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Recent trends in the near-surface climatology of the northern North American Great Plains

CCPortal

DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0106.1
	Recent trends in the near-surface climatology of the northern North American Great Plains
	Bromley G.T.; Gerken T.; Prein A.F.; Stoy P.C.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	461
结束页码	475
卷号	33 期号:2
英文摘要	We examined climate trends in the northern North American Great Plains (NNAGP) from 1970 to 2015, a period that aligns with widespread land-use changes in this globally important agricultural region. Trends were calculated from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and other climate datasets using a linear regression model that accounts for temporal autocorrelation. The NNAGP warmed on an annual basis, with the largest change occurring in winter (DJF) at 0.48C decade21. January in particular warmed at nearly 0.98C decade21. The NNAGP cooled by 20.188C decade21 during May and June, nearly the opposite of global warming trends during the study period. The atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD), which can limit crop growth, decreased in excess of 20.4 hPa decade21 during climatological summer in the southeastern part of the study domain. Precipitation P increased in the eastern portion of the NNAGP during all seasons except fall and increased during May and June in excess of 8 mm decade21. Climate trends in the NNAGP largely followed global trends except during the early warm season (May and June) during which 2-m air temperature Tair became cooler, VPD lower, and P greater across large parts of the study region. These changes are consistent with observed agricultural intensification during the study period, namely the reduction of summer fallow and expansion of agricultural land use. Global climate model simulations indicate that observed Tair trends cannot be explained by natural climate variability. However, further climate attribution experiments are necessary to understand if observed changes are caused by increased agricultural intensity or other factors. © 2019 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).
英文关键词	Agricultural robots; Agriculture; Global warming; Land use; Landforms; Regression analysis; Agricultural intensification; Agricultural land use; Climate datasets; Climatic research; Global climate model simulations; Linear regression models; Natural climate variabilities; Vapor pressure deficit; Climate models; autocorrelation; climate change; land use change; precipitation (climatology); regional climate; regression analysis; trend analysis; vapor pressure; Great Plains
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171481
作者单位	Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT, United States; Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Biological Systems Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bromley G.T.,Gerken T.,Prein A.F.,et al. Recent trends in the near-surface climatology of the northern North American Great Plains[J],2020,33(2).
APA	Bromley G.T.,Gerken T.,Prein A.F.,&Stoy P.C..(2020).Recent trends in the near-surface climatology of the northern North American Great Plains.Journal of Climate,33(2).
MLA	Bromley G.T.,et al."Recent trends in the near-surface climatology of the northern North American Great Plains".Journal of Climate 33.2(2020).