气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The role of circulation and its changes in present and future atmospheric rivers over western North America

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0134.1
	The role of circulation and its changes in present and future atmospheric rivers over western North America
	Tan Y.; Zwiers F.; Yang S.; Li C.; Deng K.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	1261
结束页码	1281
卷号	33 期号:4
英文摘要	Performance in simulating atmospheric rivers (ARs) over western North America based on AR frequency and landfall latitude is evaluated for 10 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project among which the CanESM2 model performs well. ARs are classified into southern, northern, and middle types using self-organizing maps in the ERA-Interim reanalysis and CanESM2. The southern type is associated with the development and eastward movement of anomalous lower pressure over the subtropical eastern Pacific, while the northern type is linked with the eastward movement of anomalous cyclonic circulation stimulated by warm sea surface temperatures over the subtropical western Pacific. The middle type is connected with the negative phase of North Pacific Oscillation–west Pacific teleconnection pattern. CanESM2 is further used to investigate projected AR changes at the end of the twenty-first century under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenario. AR definitions usually reference fixed integrated water vapor or integrated water vapor transport thresholds. AR changes under such definitions reflect both thermodynamic and dynamic influences. We therefore also use a modified AR definition that isolates change from dynamic influences only. The total AR frequency doubles compared to the historical period, with the middle AR type contributing the largest increases along the coasts of Vancouver Island and California. Atmospheric circulation (dynamic) changes decrease northern AR type frequency while increasing middle AR type frequency, indicating that future changes of circulation patterns modify the direct effect of warming on AR frequency, which would increase ARs (relative to fixed thresholds) almost everywhere along the North American coastline. © 2020 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Climatology; Conformal mapping; Oceanography; Self organizing maps; Surface waters; Tropics; Atmospheric circulation; Circulation patterns; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Cyclonic circulation; Fixed threshold; Historical periods; Integrated water vapors; Teleconnection patterns; Water vapor; atmospheric circulation; CMIP; cyclone; sea surface temperature; self organizing map; teleconnection; thermodynamics; water vapor; British Columbia; California; Canada; Pacific Ocean; United States; Vancouver Island
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171455
作者单位	School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China; Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; School of Atmospheric Sciences, Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China; Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, China; State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University, Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science, Ministry of Education, School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China; Regional Climate Group, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tan Y.,Zwiers F.,Yang S.,et al. The role of circulation and its changes in present and future atmospheric rivers over western North America[J],2020,33(4).
APA	Tan Y.,Zwiers F.,Yang S.,Li C.,&Deng K..(2020).The role of circulation and its changes in present and future atmospheric rivers over western North America.Journal of Climate,33(4).
MLA	Tan Y.,et al."The role of circulation and its changes in present and future atmospheric rivers over western North America".Journal of Climate 33.4(2020).