气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Illustrative analysis of probabilistic sea level rise hazard

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0320.1
	Illustrative analysis of probabilistic sea level rise hazard
	Thomas M.A.; Ting L.I.N.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	1523
结束页码	1534
卷号	33 期号:4
英文摘要	Sea level rise results from several contributing physical processes, including ocean thermal expansion and glacier and ice sheet mass loss. Future projections of sea level remain highly uncertain due to several sources of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. Quantifying different sources of sea level rise involves considering possible pathways of future radiative forcing and integrating models of different sea level rise processes. The probabilistic hazard analysis strategy has been proposed for combining sea level rise prediction models and climate forcing scenarios to examine sea level rise prediction uncertainty and the sources of this uncertainty. In this study we carry out an illustrative probabilistic sea level rise hazard analysis using ensembles of sea level rise predictions and emissions scenarios from the literature. This illustrative analysis allows us to estimate the probability that sea level rise will exceed a specified threshold at a given location and time and highlights how sea level rise uncertainty is sensitive to scenario inputs and sea level rise projection modeling choices. Probabilistic hazard is depicted for Earth using sea level rise hazard maps. We also demonstrate how hazard deaggregation can help us quantify the relative contributions of sea level rise sources, prediction models, and climate forcing scenarios to sea level rise hazard. The ice sheet contribution to sea level rise has a large impact on probabilistic projection of sea level rise due to the disagreements between current ice sheet models related to differences in modeling ice sheet instability. © 2020 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Atmospheric radiation; Climate models; Forecasting; Glaciers; Hazards; Ice; Thermal expansion; Uncertainty analysis; Aleatory and epistemic uncertainties; Emissions scenarios; Future projections; Prediction uncertainty; Probabilistic hazard analysis; Probabilistic projections; Radiative forcings; Relative contribution; Sea level; climate forcing; glacier; hazard assessment; ice sheet; prediction; probability; quantitative analysis; radiative forcing; sea level change; thermal expansion
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171437
作者单位	Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, Marquette University, Milwaukee, WI, United States; Department of Civil, Environmental, and Construction Engineering, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Thomas M.A.,Ting L.I.N.. Illustrative analysis of probabilistic sea level rise hazard[J],2020,33(4).
APA	Thomas M.A.,&Ting L.I.N..(2020).Illustrative analysis of probabilistic sea level rise hazard.Journal of Climate,33(4).
MLA	Thomas M.A.,et al."Illustrative analysis of probabilistic sea level rise hazard".Journal of Climate 33.4(2020).