气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Estimating the effective radiative forcing of contrail cirrus

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0467.1
	Estimating the effective radiative forcing of contrail cirrus
	Bickel M.; Ponater M.; Bock L.; Burkhardt U.; Reineke S.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	1991
结束页码	2005
卷号	33 期号:5
英文摘要	Evidence from previous climate model simulations has suggested a potentially low efficacy of contrails to force global mean surface temperature changes. In this paper, a climate model with a state-of-the-art contrail cirrus representation is used for fixed sea surface temperature simulations in order to determine the effective radiative forcing (ERF) from contrail cirrus. ERF is expected to be a good metric for intercomparing the quantitative importance of different contributions to surface temperature and climate impact. Substantial upscaling of aviation density is necessary to ensure statistically significant results from our simulations. The contrail cirrus ERF is found to be less than 50% of the respective instantaneous or stratosphere adjusted radiative forcings, with a best estimate of roughly 35%. The reduction of ERF is much more substantial for contrail cirrus than it is for a CO2 increase when both stratosphere adjusted forcings are of similar magnitude. Analysis of all rapid radiative adjustments contributing to the ERF indicates that the reduction is mainly induced by a compensating effect of natural clouds that provide a negative feedback. Compared to the CO2 reference case, a less positive combined water vapor and lapse rate adjustment also contributes to a more distinct reduction of contrail cirrus ERF, but not as much as the natural cloud adjustment. Based on the experience gained in this paper, respective contrail cirrus simulations with interactive ocean will be performed as the next step toward establishing contrail cirrus efficacy. ERF results of contrail cirrus from other climate models equipped with suitable parameterizations are regarded as highly desirable. © 2020 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Atmospheric radiation; Atmospheric temperature; Carbon dioxide; Clouds; Oceanography; Surface properties; Surface waters; Best estimates; Climate impacts; Climate model simulations; Global mean surface temperature; Radiative forcings; Sea surface temperature (SST); State of the art; Surface temperatures; Climate models; cirrus; climate effect; climate modeling; contrail; parameterization; radiative forcing; sea surface temperature; stratosphere; surface temperature
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171430
作者单位	Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphare, Oberpaffenhofen, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bickel M.,Ponater M.,Bock L.,et al. Estimating the effective radiative forcing of contrail cirrus[J],2020,33(5).
APA	Bickel M.,Ponater M.,Bock L.,Burkhardt U.,&Reineke S..(2020).Estimating the effective radiative forcing of contrail cirrus.Journal of Climate,33(5).
MLA	Bickel M.,et al."Estimating the effective radiative forcing of contrail cirrus".Journal of Climate 33.5(2020).