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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0248.1
	Equilibrium- And transient-state dependencies of climate sensitivity: Are they important for climate projections?
	Geoffroy O.; Saint-Martin D.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	1863
结束页码	1879
卷号	33 期号:5
英文摘要	The effective equilibrium climate sensitivity is generally assumed to be constant in climate change studies, whereas it may vary due to different mechanisms. This study assesses the importance of the different types of state dependencies of the radiative feedbacks for constraining climate projections from the historical record. In transition, the radiative feedbacks may vary with the changes in the warming pattern due to inhomogeneous ocean heat uptake. They may also vary in equilibrium due to their dependence on both temperature and CO2 concentration. A two-layer energy balance model (EBM) that accounts for these effects is shown to improve the representation of any CO2 pathway for the CMIP5 ensemble. Neglecting the nonlinear effects in constraint studies of climate projections from the historical record may induce errors in the estimated future warming. TheEBMframework is used to study these errors for three characteristicCO2 pathways. The results show that the pattern effect of ocean heat uptake is not of major importance by inducing a median error of roughly 22% for a high-emission scenario. In contrast, assuming a log-linear CO2-ERF relationship and neglecting the equilibrium-state dependencies induce a larger median error of roughly 210%. This median error is likely due to the non-log-linear dependency of the instantaneous (nonadjusted) forcing, suggesting that the equilibrium-state dependencies do not induce any systematic error. However, they contribute to increasing uncertainties in future warming estimation. © 2020 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Carbon dioxide; Errors; Climate projection; Climate sensitivity; CO2 concentration; Different mechanisms; Emission scenario; Energy balance models; Historical records; Linear dependency; Climate change; air temperature; carbon dioxide; climate change; climate prediction; CMIP; historical record; radiative forcing; warming
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171424
作者单位	Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Geoffroy O.,Saint-Martin D.. Equilibrium- And transient-state dependencies of climate sensitivity: Are they important for climate projections?[J],2020,33(5).
APA	Geoffroy O.,&Saint-Martin D..(2020).Equilibrium- And transient-state dependencies of climate sensitivity: Are they important for climate projections?.Journal of Climate,33(5).
MLA	Geoffroy O.,et al."Equilibrium- And transient-state dependencies of climate sensitivity: Are they important for climate projections?".Journal of Climate 33.5(2020).