气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Exploring controls on tropical cyclone count through the geography of environmental favorability

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0862.1
	Exploring controls on tropical cyclone count through the geography of environmental favorability
	Hoogewind K.A.; Chavas D.R.; Schenkel B.A.; O'Neill M.E.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	1725
结束页码	1745
卷号	33 期号:5
英文摘要	Globally, on the order of 100 tropical cyclones (TCs) occur annually, yet the processes that control this number remain unknown. Here we test a simple hypothesis that this number is limited by the geography of thermodynamic environments favorable for TC formation and maintenance. First, climatologies of TC potential intensity and environmental ventilation are created from reanalyses and are used in conjunction with historical TC data to define the spatiotemporal geography of favorable environments. Based on a range of predefined separation distances, the geographic domain of environmental favorability is populated with randomly placed TCs assuming a fixed minimum separation distance to achieve a maximum daily packing density of storms. Inclusion of a fixed storm duration yields an annual "maximum potential genesis" (MPG) rate, which is found to be an order of magnitude larger than the observed rate on Earth. The mean daily packing density captures the seasonal cycle reasonably well for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, though it substantially overestimates TC counts outside of each hemisphere's active seasons. Interannual variability in MPG is relatively small and is poorly correlated with annual storm count globally and across basins, though modest positive correlations are found in the North Atlantic and east Pacific basins. Overall, the spatiotemporal distribution of favorable environmental conditions appears to strongly modulate the seasonal cycle of TCs, which certainly strongly influences the TC climatology, though it does not explicitly constrain the global annual TC count. Our methodology provides the first estimate of an upper bound for annual TC frequency and outlines a framework for assessing how local and large-scale factors may act to limit global TC count below the maximum potential values found here. © 2020 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Climatology; Hurricanes; Tropics; Environmental conditions; Interannual variability; Positive correlations; Potential values; Separation distances; Southern Hemisphere; Spatiotemporal distributions; Tropical cyclone; Storms; annual variation; climatology; environmental conditions; spatial distribution; temporal distribution; thermodynamics; tropical cyclone; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (North); Pacific Ocean
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171422
作者单位	Department of Earth Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, United States; School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, Norman, OK, United States; Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States; Cooperative Institute ForMesoscale Meteorological Studies, University of Oklahoma, NOAA/OAR/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hoogewind K.A.,Chavas D.R.,Schenkel B.A.,et al. Exploring controls on tropical cyclone count through the geography of environmental favorability[J],2020,33(5).
APA	Hoogewind K.A.,Chavas D.R.,Schenkel B.A.,&O'Neill M.E..(2020).Exploring controls on tropical cyclone count through the geography of environmental favorability.Journal of Climate,33(5).
MLA	Hoogewind K.A.,et al."Exploring controls on tropical cyclone count through the geography of environmental favorability".Journal of Climate 33.5(2020).