气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The importance of past MJO activity in determining the future state of the midlatitude circulation

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0512.1
	The importance of past MJO activity in determining the future state of the midlatitude circulation
	Tseng K.-C.; Barnes E.A.; Maloney E.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	2131
结束页码	2147
卷号	33 期号:6
英文摘要	The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is one of the most important sources of predictability on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales. Many previous studies have explored the impact of the present state of the MJO on the future evolution and predictability of extratropical weather patterns. What is still unclear, however, is the importance of the accumulated influence of past MJO activity on these results. In this study, the importance of past MJO activity in determining the future state of extratropical circulations is examined by using a linear baroclinic model (LBM) and one of the simplest machine learning algorithms: logistic regression. By increasing the complexity of the logistic regression model with additional information about the past activity of the MJO, it is demonstrated that the past 15 days play a dominant role in determining the state of MJO teleconnections more than 15 days into the future. This conclusion is supported by numerical LBM simulations. It is further shown that the past 15 days of additional information are only important for some MJO phases/lead times and not others, and the physical basis for this result is explored. © 2020 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Learning algorithms; Logistic regression; Machine learning; Baroclinic models; Extratropical; Extratropical circulation; Logistic Regression modeling; Midlatitudes; Teleconnections; Time-scales; Weather patterns; Climatology
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171407
作者单位	Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tseng K.-C.,Barnes E.A.,Maloney E.. The importance of past MJO activity in determining the future state of the midlatitude circulation[J],2020,33(6).
APA	Tseng K.-C.,Barnes E.A.,&Maloney E..(2020).The importance of past MJO activity in determining the future state of the midlatitude circulation.Journal of Climate,33(6).
MLA	Tseng K.-C.,et al."The importance of past MJO activity in determining the future state of the midlatitude circulation".Journal of Climate 33.6(2020).