气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Enhanced ENSO prediction via augmentation of multimodel ensembles with initial thermocline perturbations

CCPortal

DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0444.1
	Enhanced ENSO prediction via augmentation of multimodel ensembles with initial thermocline perturbations
	O’Kane T.J.; Squire D.T.; Sandery P.A.; Kitsios V.; Matear R.J.; Moore T.S.; Risbey J.S.; Watterson I.G.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	2281
结束页码	2293
卷号	33 期号:6
英文摘要	Recent studies have shown that regardless of model configuration, skill in predicting El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), in terms of target month and forecast lead time, remains largely dependent on the temporal characteristics of the boreal spring predictability barrier. Continuing the 2019 study by O’Kane et al., we compare multiyear ensemble ENSO forecasts from the Climate Analysis Forecast Ensemble (CAFE) to ensemble forecasts from state-of-the-art dynamical coupled models in the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) project. The CAFE initial perturbations are targeted such that they are specific to tropical Pacific thermocline variability. With respect to individual NMME forecasts and multimodel ensemble averages, the CAFE forecasts reveal improvements in skill when predicting ENSO at lead times greater than 6 months, in particular when predictability is most strongly limited by the boreal spring barrier. Initial forecast perturbations generated exclusively as disturbances in the equatorial Pacific thermocline are shown to improve the forecast skill at longer lead times in terms of anomaly correlation and the random walk sign test. Our results indicate that augmenting current initialization methods with initial perturbations targeting instabilities specific to the tropical Pacific thermocline may improve long-range ENSO prediction. © 2020 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Atmospheric pressure; Climate models; Climatology; Stream flow; Tropics; Anomaly correlations; Equatorial Pacific; Initial perturbation; Initialization methods; Model configuration; Multi-model ensemble; Southern oscillation; Temporal characteristics; Forecasting; atmospheric modeling; climate prediction; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; ensemble forecasting; perturbation; thermocline; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (Equatorial); Pacific Ocean (Tropical)
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171395
作者单位	CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	O’Kane T.J.,Squire D.T.,Sandery P.A.,et al. Enhanced ENSO prediction via augmentation of multimodel ensembles with initial thermocline perturbations[J],2020,33(6).
APA	O’Kane T.J..,Squire D.T..,Sandery P.A..,Kitsios V..,Matear R.J..,...&Watterson I.G..(2020).Enhanced ENSO prediction via augmentation of multimodel ensembles with initial thermocline perturbations.Journal of Climate,33(6).
MLA	O’Kane T.J.,et al."Enhanced ENSO prediction via augmentation of multimodel ensembles with initial thermocline perturbations".Journal of Climate 33.6(2020).