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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0048.1
	Seasonal dependence of cold surges and their interaction with the madden–julian oscillation over Southeast Asia
	Xavier P.; Lim S.Y.; Bin Abdullah M.F.A.; Bala M.; Chenoli S.N.; Handayani A.S.; Marzin C.; Permana D.; Tangang F.; Williams K.D.; Yik D.J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	2467
结束页码	2482
卷号	33 期号:6
英文摘要	Northeasterly cold surges strongly influence the rainfall patterns over the Malay Peninsula during the northeast monsoon season. This study looks at the changes in the cold surges and Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) characteristics through the northeast monsoon season and their interaction. Nearly 75% of the cold surge events tend to cross the equator around the Java Sea area (1008–1108E) in February–March with drier conditions prevailing over the Malay Peninsula and increased rainfall over Java. Both the cold surges and the MJO undergo seasonal variations with well-defined regional features. Wavelet analysis shows that MJO amplitude and high-frequency rainfall variations over Southeast Asia peak in November–December. MJO amplitude is suppressed during February and March. This is linked to the high-frequency surges of meridional winds that are prominent during the early part of the season, but February–March is dominated by low-frequency (;20–90 days) cross-equatorial monsoon flow. These prolonged periods of strong meridional flow at the equator interact with the MJO both dynamically and thermodynamically and act as a barrier for convection from propagating from the Indian Ocean to the Maritime Continent (MC). These interactions may have implications for weather and seasonal forecasting over the region. An evaluation of the properties of cold surges and their interaction with the seasonal cycle in the Met Office Unified Model is performed. The atmosphere–ocean coupled model performs better in representing the pattern of influence of the cold surges despite the biases in intensity and spatial distribution of rainfall extremes. These diagnostics are presented with the aim of developing a set of model evaluation metrics for global and regional models. © 2020 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).
英文关键词	Atmospheric thermodynamics; Rain; Weather forecasting; High frequency HF; High frequency surges; Maritime Continent; Rainfall extremes; Rainfall variation; Seasonal dependence; Seasonal forecasting; Seasonal variation; Climatology; cold wave; Madden-Julian oscillation; monsoon; precipitation intensity; seasonal variation; wavelet analysis; weather forecasting; Southeast Asia
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171389
作者单位	Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; Centre for Climate Research, Singapore; Malaysian Meteorological Department, Petaling Jaya, Malaysia; Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, Quezon City, Philippines; University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia; Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG), Jakarta, Indonesia; Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi Selangor, Malaysia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xavier P.,Lim S.Y.,Bin Abdullah M.F.A.,等. Seasonal dependence of cold surges and their interaction with the madden–julian oscillation over Southeast Asia[J],2020,33(6).
APA	Xavier P..,Lim S.Y..,Bin Abdullah M.F.A..,Bala M..,Chenoli S.N..,...&Yik D.J..(2020).Seasonal dependence of cold surges and their interaction with the madden–julian oscillation over Southeast Asia.Journal of Climate,33(6).
MLA	Xavier P.,et al."Seasonal dependence of cold surges and their interaction with the madden–julian oscillation over Southeast Asia".Journal of Climate 33.6(2020).