气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Response of arctic freshwater to the arctic oscillation in coupled climate models

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0685.1
	Response of arctic freshwater to the arctic oscillation in coupled climate models
	Cornish S.B.; Kostov Y.; Johnson H.L.; Lique C.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	2533
结束页码	2555
卷号	33 期号:7
英文摘要	The freshwater content (FWC) of the Arctic Ocean is intimately linked to the stratification - a physical characteristic of the Arctic Ocean with wide relevance for climate and biology. Here, we explore the relationship between atmospheric circulation and Arctic FWC across 12 different control-run simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Using multiple lagged regression, we seek to isolate the linear response of Arctic FWC to a step change in the strength of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) as well as the second and third orthogonal modes of SLP variability over the Arctic domain. There is broad agreement among models that a step change to a more anticyclonic AO leads to an increase in Arctic FWC, with an e-folding time scale of 5-10 yr. However, models differ widely in the degree to which a linear response to SLP variability can explain FWC changes. Although the mean states, time scales, and magnitudes of FWC variability may be broadly similar, the physical origins of variability are highly inconsistent among models. We perform a robustness test that incorporates a Monte Carlo approach to determine which response functions are most likely to represent causal, physical relationships within the models and which are artifacts of regression. Convolution with SLP reanalysis data shows that the four most robust response functions have some skill at reproducing observed accumulation of FWC during the late 1990s and 2000s, consistent with the idea that this change was largely wind driven. © 2020 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Water; Arctic Oscillation; Arctic oscillations; Atmospheric circulation; Coupled climate model; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Freshwater contents; Monte Carlo approach; Physical characteristics; Climate models; Arctic Oscillation; atmosphere-ocean coupling; atmospheric circulation; climate modeling; computer simulation; freshwater; wind field; Arctic Ocean
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171381
作者单位	Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Université de Bretagne Occidentale, CNRS, IRD, Ifremer, Laboratoire d'Océanographie Physique et Spatiale, IUEM, Brest, France; College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Cornish S.B.,Kostov Y.,Johnson H.L.,et al. Response of arctic freshwater to the arctic oscillation in coupled climate models[J],2020,33(7).
APA	Cornish S.B.,Kostov Y.,Johnson H.L.,&Lique C..(2020).Response of arctic freshwater to the arctic oscillation in coupled climate models.Journal of Climate,33(7).
MLA	Cornish S.B.,et al."Response of arctic freshwater to the arctic oscillation in coupled climate models".Journal of Climate 33.7(2020).