气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Effects of explicit convection on future projections of mesoscale circulations; rainfall; and rainfall extremes over eastern Africa

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0328.1
	Effects of explicit convection on future projections of mesoscale circulations; rainfall; and rainfall extremes over eastern Africa
	Finney D.L.; Marsham J.H.; Rowell D.P.; Kendon E.J.; Tucker S.O.; Stratton R.A.; Jackson L.S.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	2701
结束页码	2718
卷号	33 期号:7
英文摘要	Eastern Africa's fast-growing population is vulnerable to changing rainfall and extremes. Using the first pan-African climate change simulations that explicitly model the rainfall-generating convection, we investigate both the climate change response of key mesoscale drivers of eastern African rainfall, such as sea and lake breezes, and the spatial heterogeneity of rainfall responses. The explicit model shows widespread increases at the end of the century in mean (;40%) and extreme (;50%) rain rates, whereas the sign of changes in rainfall frequency has large spatial heterogeneity (from 250% to over 190%). In comparison, an equivalent parameterized simulation has greater moisture convergence and total rainfall increase over the eastern Congo and less over eastern Africa. The parameterized model also does not capture 1) the large heterogeneity of changes in rain frequency; 2) the widespread and large increases in extreme rainfall, which result from increased rainfall per humidity change; and 3) the response of rainfall to the changing sea breeze, even though the sea-breeze change is captured. Consequently, previous rainfall projections are likely inadequate for informing many climate-sensitive decisions-for example, for infrastructure in coastal cities. We consider the physics revealed here and its implications to be relevant for many other vulnerable tropical regions, especially those with coastal convection. © 2020 American Meteorological Society
英文关键词	Climate change; Climate models; Climate change simulations; Explicit modeling; Future projections; Mesoscale circulation; Moisture convergence; Parameterized model; Rainfall frequency; Spatial heterogeneity; Rain; atmospheric circulation; atmospheric convection; computer simulation; extreme event; future prospect; mesoscale meteorology; numerical model; precipitation intensity; spatiotemporal analysis; East Africa
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171368
作者单位	School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Leeds, United Kingdom; Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Finney D.L.,Marsham J.H.,Rowell D.P.,et al. Effects of explicit convection on future projections of mesoscale circulations; rainfall; and rainfall extremes over eastern Africa[J],2020,33(7).
APA	Finney D.L..,Marsham J.H..,Rowell D.P..,Kendon E.J..,Tucker S.O..,...&Jackson L.S..(2020).Effects of explicit convection on future projections of mesoscale circulations; rainfall; and rainfall extremes over eastern Africa.Journal of Climate,33(7).
MLA	Finney D.L.,et al."Effects of explicit convection on future projections of mesoscale circulations; rainfall; and rainfall extremes over eastern Africa".Journal of Climate 33.7(2020).