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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0084.1
	Future global meteorological drought hot spots: A study based on CORDEX data
	Spinoni J.; Barbosa P.; Bucchignani E.; Cassano J.; Cavazos T.; Christensen J.H.; Christensen O.B.; Coppola E.; Evans J.; Geyer B.; Giorgi F.; Hadjinicolaou P.; Jacob D.; Katzfey J.; Koenigk T.; Laprise R.; Lennard C.J.; Kurnaz M.L.; Delei L.I.; Llopart M.; McCormick N.; Naumann G.; Nikulin G.; Ozturk T.; Panitz H.-J.; da Rocha R.P.; Rockel B.; Solman S.A.; Syktus J.; Tangang F.; Teichmann C.; Vautard R.; Vogt J.V.; Winger K.; Zittis G.; Dosio A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	3635
结束页码	3661
卷号	33 期号:9
英文摘要	Two questions motivated this study: 1) Will meteorological droughts become more frequent and severe during the twenty-first century? 2) Given the projected global temperature rise, to what extent does the inclusion of temperature (in addition to precipitation) in drought indicators play a role in future meteorological droughts? To answer, we analyzed the changes in drought frequency, severity, and historically undocumented extreme droughts over 1981–2100, using the standardized precipitation index (SPI; including precipitation only) and standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI; indirectly including temperature), and under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). As input data, we employed 103 high-resolution (0.448) simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), based on a combination of 16 global circulation models (GCMs) and 20 regional circulation models (RCMs). This is the first study on global drought projections including RCMs based on such a large ensemble of RCMs. Based on precipitation only,;15% of the global land is likely to experience more frequent and severe droughts during 2071–2100 versus 1981–2010 for both scenarios. This increase is larger (;47% under RCP4.5,;49% under RCP8.5) when precipitation and temperature are used. Both SPI and SPEI project more frequent and severe droughts, especially under RCP8.5, over southern South America, the Mediterranean region, southern Africa, southeastern China, Japan, and southern Australia. A decrease in drought is projected for high latitudes in Northern Hemisphere and Southeast Asia. If temperature is included, drought characteristics are projected to increase over North America, Amazonia, central Europe and Asia, the Horn of Africa, India, and central Australia; if only precipitation is considered, they are found to decrease over those areas. © 2020 American Meteorological Society
英文关键词	Climate models; Drought characteristics; Global circulation model; Mediterranean region; Meteorological drought; Northern Hemispheres; Regional circulation models; Southern south america; Standardized precipitation index; Drought; air temperature; circulation modeling; climate modeling; climate prediction; downscaling; drought; ensemble forecasting; precipitation assessment; regional climate; severe weather; Asia; Australia; Europe; Mediterranean Region; South Africa; South America
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171344
作者单位	European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy; Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Lecce, Italy; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; Centro de Investigacion Cientifica y de Educacion Superior de Ensenada, Ensenada, Mexico; Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark; Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark; Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy; Faculty of Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Institute of Coastal Research, Hamburg, Germany; Energy, Environment and Water Research Center, Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus; Climate Service Center Germany, Hamburg, Germany; Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC, Australia; Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorolo...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Spinoni J.,Barbosa P.,Bucchignani E.,et al. Future global meteorological drought hot spots: A study based on CORDEX data[J],2020,33(9).
APA	Spinoni J..,Barbosa P..,Bucchignani E..,Cassano J..,Cavazos T..,...&Dosio A..(2020).Future global meteorological drought hot spots: A study based on CORDEX data.Journal of Climate,33(9).
MLA	Spinoni J.,et al."Future global meteorological drought hot spots: A study based on CORDEX data".Journal of Climate 33.9(2020).