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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0375.1
	Variability of arctic sea ice based on quantile regression and the teleconnection with large-scale climate patterns
	Zhang S.; Gan T.Y.; Bush A.B.G.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	4009
结束页码	4025
卷号	33 期号:10
英文摘要	Under global warming, Arctic sea ice has declined significantly in recent decades, with years of extremely low sea ice occurring more frequently. Recent studies suggest that teleconnections with large-scale climate patterns could induce the observed extreme sea ice loss. In this study, a probabilistic analysis of Arctic sea ice was conducted using quantile regression analysis with covariates, including time and climate indices. From temporal trends at quantile levels from 0.01 to 0.99, Arctic sea ice shows statistically significant decreases over all quantile levels, although of different magnitudes at different quantiles. At the representative extreme quantile levels of the 5th and 95th percentiles, the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific-North American pattern (PNA) have more significant influence on Arctic sea ice than El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). Positive AO as well as positive NAO contribute to low winter sea ice, and a positive PNA contributes to low summer Arctic sea ice. If, in addition to these conditions, there is concurrently positive AMO and PDO, the sea ice decrease is amplified. Teleconnections between Arctic sea ice and the climate patterns were demonstrated through a composite analysis of the climate variables. The anomalously strong anticyclonic circulation during the years of positive AO, NAO, and PNA promotes more sea ice export through Fram Strait, resulting in excessive sea ice loss. The probabilistic analyses of the teleconnections between the Arctic sea ice and climate patterns confirm the crucial role that the climate patterns and their combinations play in overall sea ice reduction, but particularly for the low and high quantiles of sea ice concentration. © 2020 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).
英文关键词	Atmospheric pressure; Ferroelectric RAM; Global warming; Regression analysis; Anticyclonic circulation; Atlantic multidecadal oscillations; North Atlantic oscillations; Pacific decadal oscillation; Probabilistic analysis; Quantile regression; Sea ice concentration; Southern oscillation; Sea ice; air-sea interaction; arctic environment; Arctic Oscillation; atmosphere-ice-ocean system; climate change; climate effect; global warming; North Atlantic Oscillation; probability; quantitative analysis; sea ice; spatial variation; teleconnection; Arctic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (North)
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171311
作者单位	Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada; Department of Earth and Atmosphere Science, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang S.,Gan T.Y.,Bush A.B.G.. Variability of arctic sea ice based on quantile regression and the teleconnection with large-scale climate patterns[J],2020,33(10).
APA	Zhang S.,Gan T.Y.,&Bush A.B.G..(2020).Variability of arctic sea ice based on quantile regression and the teleconnection with large-scale climate patterns.Journal of Climate,33(10).
MLA	Zhang S.,et al."Variability of arctic sea ice based on quantile regression and the teleconnection with large-scale climate patterns".Journal of Climate 33.10(2020).