气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Statistical-Dynamical downscaling projections of tropical cyclone activity in a warming climate: Two diverging genesis scenarios

CCPortal

DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0452.1
	Statistical-Dynamical downscaling projections of tropical cyclone activity in a warming climate: Two diverging genesis scenarios
	Lee C.-Y.; Camargo S.J.; Sobel A.H.; Tippett M.K.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	4815
结束页码	4834
卷号	33 期号:11
英文摘要	Tropical cyclone (TC) activity is examined using the Columbia Hazard model (CHAZ), a statistical-dynamical downscaling system, with environmental conditions taken from simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for both the historical period and a future scenario under the representative concentration pathway 8.5. Projections of individual global and basin TC frequency depend sensitively on the choice of moisture variable used in the tropical genesis cyclone index (TCGI) component of CHAZ. Simulations using column relative humidity show an increasing trend in the future, while those using saturation deficit show a decreasing trend, although both give similar results in the historical period. While the projected annual TC frequency is also sensitive to the choice ofmodel used to provide the environmental conditions, the choice of humidity variable in the TCGI ismore important. Changes in TC frequency directly affect the projected TCs' tracks and the frequencies of strong storms on both basin and regional scales. This leads to large uncertainty in assessing regional and local storm hazards. The uncertainty here is fundamental and epistemic in nature. Increases in the fraction of major TCs, rapid intensification rate, and decreases in forward speed are insensitive to TC frequency, however. The present results are also consistent with prior studies in indicating that those TC events that do occur will, on average, be more destructive in the future because of the robustly projected increases in intensity. © 2020 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Hazards; Hurricanes; Tropics; Uncertainty analysis; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Environmental conditions; Historical periods; Humidity variables; Rapid intensification; Saturation deficit; Statistical-dynamical; Tropical cyclone activity; Storms; climate conditions; downscaling; relative humidity; statistical analysis; tropical cyclone
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171279
作者单位	Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lee C.-Y.,Camargo S.J.,Sobel A.H.,et al. Statistical-Dynamical downscaling projections of tropical cyclone activity in a warming climate: Two diverging genesis scenarios[J],2020,33(11).
APA	Lee C.-Y.,Camargo S.J.,Sobel A.H.,&Tippett M.K..(2020).Statistical-Dynamical downscaling projections of tropical cyclone activity in a warming climate: Two diverging genesis scenarios.Journal of Climate,33(11).
MLA	Lee C.-Y.,et al."Statistical-Dynamical downscaling projections of tropical cyclone activity in a warming climate: Two diverging genesis scenarios".Journal of Climate 33.11(2020).