气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A Linear Inverse Model of Tropical and South Pacific Seasonal Predictability

CCPortal

DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0548.1
	A Linear Inverse Model of Tropical and South Pacific Seasonal Predictability
	Lou J.; O'Kane T.J.; Holbrook N.J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	4537
结束页码	4554
卷号	33 期号:11
英文摘要	A multivariate linear inverse model (LIM) is developed to demonstrate the mechanisms and seasonal predictability of the dominant modes of variability from the tropical and South Pacific Oceans.Weconstruct a LIM whose covariance matrix is a combination of principal components derived from tropical and extratropical sea surface temperature, and South Pacific Ocean vertically averaged temperature anomalies. Eigendecomposition of the linear deterministic system yields stationary and/or propagating eigenmodes, of which the least damped modes resemble El Ninõ-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the South Pacific decadal oscillation (SPDO). We show that although the oscillatory periods of ENSO and SPDO are distinct, they have very close damping time scales, indicating that the predictive skill of the surface ENSO and SPDO is comparable. The most damped noise modes occur in the midlatitude South Pacific Ocean, reflecting atmospheric eastward-propagating Rossby wave train variability. We argue that these ocean wave trains occur due to the high-frequency atmospheric variability of the Pacific-South American pattern imprinting onto the surface ocean. The ENSO spring predictability barrier is apparent in LIM predictions initialized in March-May (MAM) but displays a significant correlation skill of up to ;3 months. For the SPDO, the predictability barrier tends to appear in June-September (JAS), indicating remote but delayed influences from the tropics. We demonstrate that subsurface processes in the South Pacific Ocean are the main source of decadal variability and further that by characterizing the upper ocean temperature contribution in the LIM, the seasonal predictability of both ENSO and the SPDO variability is increased. © 2020 American Meteorological Society. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Atmospheric pressure; Climatology; Covariance matrix; Inverse problems; Surface waters; Tropics; Water waves; Atmospheric variability; Deterministic systems; Linear inverse models; Pacific decadal oscillation; Principal Components; Sea surface temperature (SST); South pacific oceans; Southern oscillation; Ocean currents; climate modeling; climate prediction; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; numerical model; regression analysis; weather forecasting; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (South); Pacific Ocean (Tropical)
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171273
作者单位	Arc Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia; Csiro Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lou J.,O'Kane T.J.,Holbrook N.J.. A Linear Inverse Model of Tropical and South Pacific Seasonal Predictability[J],2020,33(11).
APA	Lou J.,O'Kane T.J.,&Holbrook N.J..(2020).A Linear Inverse Model of Tropical and South Pacific Seasonal Predictability.Journal of Climate,33(11).
MLA	Lou J.,et al."A Linear Inverse Model of Tropical and South Pacific Seasonal Predictability".Journal of Climate 33.11(2020).