气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Detectable anthropogenic influence on changes in summer precipitation in China

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0285.1
	Detectable anthropogenic influence on changes in summer precipitation in China
	Lu C.; Lott F.C.; Sun Y.; Stott P.A.; Christidis N.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	5357
结束页码	5369
卷号	33 期号:13
英文摘要	In China, summer precipitation contributes a major part of the total precipitation amount in a year and has major impacts on society and human life. Whether any changes in summer precipitation are affected by external forcing on the climate system is an important issue. In this study, an optimal fingerprinting method was used to compare the observed changes of total, heavy, moderate, and light precipitation in summer derived from newly homogenized observation data with the simulations from multiple climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The results demonstrate that the anthropogenic forcing signal can be detected and separated from the natural forcing signal in the observed increase of seasonal accumulated precipitation amount for heavy precipitation in summer in China and eastern China (EC). The simulated changes in heavy precipitation are generally consistent with observed change in China but are underestimated in EC. When the changes in precipitation of different intensities are considered simultaneously, the human influence on simultaneous changes in moderate and light precipitation can be detected in China and EC in summer. Changes attributable to anthropogenic forcing explain most of the observed regional changes for all categories of summer precipitation, and natural forcing contributes little. In the future, with increasing anthropogenic influence, the attribution-constrained projection suggests that heavy precipitation in summer will increasemore than that from the model raw outputs. Society may therefore face a higher risk of heavy precipitation in the future. © 2020 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Climate models; Anthropogenic forcing; Anthropogenic influence; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Heavy precipitation; Human influences; Optimal fingerprinting; Summer precipitation; Total precipitation; Climate change; anthropogenic effect; climate change; climate modeling; precipitation (climatology); seasonal variation; summer; China
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171251
作者单位	National Climate Center, Laboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; Met Office Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lu C.,Lott F.C.,Sun Y.,et al. Detectable anthropogenic influence on changes in summer precipitation in China[J],2020,33(13).
APA	Lu C.,Lott F.C.,Sun Y.,Stott P.A.,&Christidis N..(2020).Detectable anthropogenic influence on changes in summer precipitation in China.Journal of Climate,33(13).
MLA	Lu C.,et al."Detectable anthropogenic influence on changes in summer precipitation in China".Journal of Climate 33.13(2020).