气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Why Is the Mediterranean a Climate Change Hot Spot?

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0910.1
	Why Is the Mediterranean a Climate Change Hot Spot?
	Tuel A.; Eltahir E.A.B.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	5829
结束页码	5843
卷号	33 期号:14
英文摘要	Higher precipitation is expected over most of the world's continents under climate change, except for a few specific regions where models project robust declines. Among these, the Mediterranean stands out as a result of the magnitude and significance of its winter precipitation decline. Locally, up to 40% of winter precipitation could be lost, setting strong limits on water resources that will constrain the ability of the region to develop and grow food, affecting millions of already water-stressed people and threatening the stability of this tense and complex area. To this day, however, a theory explaining the special nature of this region as a climate change hot spot is still lacking. Regional circulation changes, dominated by the development of a strong anomalous ridge, are thought to drive the winter precipitation decline, but their origins and potential contributions to regional hydroclimate change remain elusive. Here, we show how wintertime Mediterranean circulation trends can be seen as the combined response to two independent forcings: robust changes in largescale, upper-Tropospheric flow and the reduction in the regional land-sea temperature gradient that is characteristic of this region. In addition, we discuss how the circulation change can account for the magnitude and spatial structure of the drying. Our findings pave the way for better understanding and improved modeling of the future Mediterranean hydroclimate. © 2020 American Meteorological Society. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Climate models; Water resources; Circulation changes; Forcings; Hot spot; Regional circulation; Spatial structure; Winter precipitation; Climate change; climate change; general circulation model; hydrometeorology; precipitation assessment; regional climate; seasonal variation; spatiotemporal analysis; trend analysis; Mediterranean Region
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171231
作者单位	Ralph M. Parsons Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tuel A.,Eltahir E.A.B.. Why Is the Mediterranean a Climate Change Hot Spot?[J],2020,33(14).
APA	Tuel A.,&Eltahir E.A.B..(2020).Why Is the Mediterranean a Climate Change Hot Spot?.Journal of Climate,33(14).
MLA	Tuel A.,et al."Why Is the Mediterranean a Climate Change Hot Spot?".Journal of Climate 33.14(2020).