气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Edge Detection Reveals Abrupt and Extreme Climate Events

CCPortal

DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0449.1
	Edge Detection Reveals Abrupt and Extreme Climate Events
	Bathiany S.; Hidding J.; Scheffer M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	6399
结束页码	6421
卷号	33 期号:15
英文摘要	The most discernible and devastating impacts of climate change are caused by events with temporary extreme conditions ("extreme events") or abrupt shifts to a new persistent climate state ("tipping points"). The rapidly growing amount of data from models and observations poses the challenge to reliably detect where, when, why, and how these events occur. This situation calls for data-mining approaches that can detect and diagnose events in an automatic and reproducible way. Here, we apply a new strategy to this task by generalizing the classical machine-vision problem of detecting edges in 2D images to many dimensions (including time). Our edge detector identifies abrupt or extreme climate events in spatiotemporal data, quantifies their abruptness (or extremeness), and provides diagnostics that help one to understand the causes of these shifts.We also publish a comprehensive toolset of code that is documented and free to use. We document the performance of the new edge detector by analyzing several datasets of observations and models. In particular, we apply it to all monthly 2Dvariables of the RCP8.5 scenario of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5).More than half of all simulations show abrupt shifts of more than 4 standard deviations on a time scale of 10 years. These shifts are mostly related to the loss of sea ice and permafrost in the Arctic.Our results demonstrate that the edge detector is particularly useful to scan large datasets in an efficient way, for examplemultimodel or perturbed-physics ensembles. It can thus help to reveal hidden "climate surprises" and to assess the uncertainties of dangerous climate events. © 2020 American Meteorological Society. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Data mining; Edge detection; Extreme weather; Large dataset; Sea ice; Uncertainty analysis; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Edge detectors; Extreme climates; Extreme conditions; Extreme events; Large datasets; Spatio-temporal data; Standard deviation; Climate change; climate change; climate modeling; CMIP; computer simulation; detection method; extreme event; spatiotemporal analysis
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171208
作者单位	Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, Netherlands; Netherlands EScience Center, Amsterdam, Netherlands; Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bathiany S.,Hidding J.,Scheffer M.. Edge Detection Reveals Abrupt and Extreme Climate Events[J],2020,33(15).
APA	Bathiany S.,Hidding J.,&Scheffer M..(2020).Edge Detection Reveals Abrupt and Extreme Climate Events.Journal of Climate,33(15).
MLA	Bathiany S.,et al."Edge Detection Reveals Abrupt and Extreme Climate Events".Journal of Climate 33.15(2020).