气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Describing the Relationship between a Weather Event and Climate Change: A New Statistical Approach

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0217.1
	Describing the Relationship between a Weather Event and Climate Change: A New Statistical Approach
	Ribes A.; Thao S.; Cattiaux J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	6297
结束页码	6314
卷号	33 期号:15
英文摘要	Describing the relationship between a weather event and climate change-a science usually termed event attribution-involves quantifying the extent to which human influence has affected the frequency or the strength of an observed event. In this study we show how event attribution can be implemented through the application of nonstationary statistics to transient simulations, typically covering the 1850-2100 period. The use of existing CMIP-style simulations has many advantages, including their availability for a large range of coupled models and the fact that they are not conditional to a given oceanic state. We develop a technique for providing a multimodel synthesis, consistent with the uncertainty analysis of long-term changes. Last, we describe how model estimates can be combined with historical observations to provide a single diagnosis accounting for both sources of information. The potential of this new method is illustrated using the 2003 European heat wave and under a Gaussian assumption. Results suggest that (i) it is feasible to perform event attribution using transient simulations and nonstationary statistics, even for a single model; (ii) the use of multimodel synthesis in event attribution is highly desirable given the spread in single-model estimates; and (iii) merging models and observations substantially reduces uncertainties in human-induced changes. Investigating transient simulations also enables us to derive insightful diagnostics of how the targeted event will be affected by climate change in the future. © 2020 American Meteorological Society. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Uncertainty analysis; Weather information services; Gaussian assumption; Historical observation; Human influences; Long term change; Non-stationary statistics; Sources of informations; Statistical approach; Transient simulation; Climate change; climate change; climate effect; CMIP; computer simulation; heat wave; long-term change; statistical analysis; uncertainty analysis
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171207
作者单位	Centre National de Recherches Méteórologiques, Université de Toulouse, Matao France, Cnrs, Toulouse, France; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Ipsl AndUParis Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; Centre National de Recherches Méteórologiques, Université de Toulouse, Matao France, Cnrs, Toulouse, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ribes A.,Thao S.,Cattiaux J.. Describing the Relationship between a Weather Event and Climate Change: A New Statistical Approach[J],2020,33(15).
APA	Ribes A.,Thao S.,&Cattiaux J..(2020).Describing the Relationship between a Weather Event and Climate Change: A New Statistical Approach.Journal of Climate,33(15).
MLA	Ribes A.,et al."Describing the Relationship between a Weather Event and Climate Change: A New Statistical Approach".Journal of Climate 33.15(2020).