气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Linkage between projected precipitation and atmospheric thermodynamic changes

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0785.1
	Linkage between projected precipitation and atmospheric thermodynamic changes
	Chen J.; Aiguo D.A.I.; Zhang Y.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	7155
结束页码	7178
卷号	33 期号:16
英文摘要	Light-moderate precipitation is projected to decrease whereas heavy precipitation may increase under greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced global warming, while atmospheric convective available potential energy (CAPE) over most of the globe and convective inhibition (CIN) over land are projected to increase. The underlying processes for these precipitation changes are not fully understood. Here, projected precipitation changes are analyzed using 3-hourly data from simulations by a fully coupled climate model, and their link to the CAPE and CIN changes is examined. The model approximately captures the spatial patterns in the mean precipitation frequencies and the significant correlation between the precipitation frequencies or intensity and CAPE over most of the globe or CIN over tropical oceans seen in reanalysis, and it projects decreased light-moderate precipitation (0.01, P # 1 mm h21) but increased heavy precipitation (P. 1 mm h21) in a warmer climate. Results show that most of the light-moderate precipitation events occur under low-CAPE and/or low-CIN conditions, which are projected to decrease greatly in a warmer climate as increased temperature and humidity shift many of such cases into moderate-high CAPE or CIN cases. This results in large decreases in the light-moderate precipitation events. In contrast, increases in heavy precipitation result primarily from its increased probability under given CAPE and CIN, with a secondary contribution from the CAPE/CIN frequency changes. The increased probability for heavy precipitation partly results from a shift of the precipitation histogram toward higher intensity that could result from a uniform percentage increase in precipitation intensity due to increased water vapor in a warmer climate. © 2020 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).
英文关键词	Atmospheric humidity; Global warming; Greenhouse gases; Potential energy; Convective available potential energies; Convective inhibition; Greenhouse gas (GHG); Increased temperature; Precipitation change; Precipitation events; Precipitation frequency; Precipitation intensity; Climate models; air temperature; climate modeling; global warming; greenhouse gas; humidity; precipitation (climatology); precipitation intensity; thermodynamics; water vapor
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171184
作者单位	School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chen J.,Aiguo D.A.I.,Zhang Y.. Linkage between projected precipitation and atmospheric thermodynamic changes[J],2020,33(16).
APA	Chen J.,Aiguo D.A.I.,&Zhang Y..(2020).Linkage between projected precipitation and atmospheric thermodynamic changes.Journal of Climate,33(16).
MLA	Chen J.,et al."Linkage between projected precipitation and atmospheric thermodynamic changes".Journal of Climate 33.16(2020).