气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): An evaluation of block-maximum-based estimation of very long return period precipitation extremes with a large ensemble climate simulation

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0011.1
	An evaluation of block-maximum-based estimation of very long return period precipitation extremes with a large ensemble climate simulation
	Ben Alaya M.A.; Zwiers F.; Zhang X.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	6957
结束页码	6970
卷号	33 期号:16
英文摘要	The recurring devastation caused by extreme events underscores the need for reliable estimates of their intensity and frequency. Operational frequency and intensity estimates are very often obtained from generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions fitted to samples of annual maxima. GEV distributed random variables are ''max-stable,'' meaning that the maximum of a sample of several values drawn from a given GEV distribution is again GEV distributed with the same shape parameter. Long-period return value estimation relies on this property of the distribution. The data to which the models are fitted may not, however, be max-stable. Observational records are generally too short to assess whether max-stability holds in the upper tail of the observations. Large ensemble climate simulations, from which we can obtain very large samples of annual extremes, provide an opportunity to assess whether max-stability holds in a model-simulated climate and to quantify the impact of the lack of max-stability on very long period return-level estimates. We use a recent large ensemble simulation of the North American climate for this purpose. We find that the annual maxima of short-duration precipitation extremes tend not to be max-stable in the simulated climate, as indicated by systematic variation in the estimated shape parameter as block length is increased from 1 to 20 years. We explore how the lack of max-stability affects the estimation of very long period return levels and discuss reasons why short-duration precipitation extremes may not be max-stable. © 2020 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).
英文关键词	Stability; Climate simulation; Distributed random variables; Ensemble simulation; Generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions; Operational frequency; Precipitation extremes; Reliable estimates; Systematic variation; Climate models; climate modeling; estimation method; extreme event; precipitation (climatology); probability; return period; North America
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171180
作者单位	Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Climate Research Division, Environment Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ben Alaya M.A.,Zwiers F.,Zhang X.. An evaluation of block-maximum-based estimation of very long return period precipitation extremes with a large ensemble climate simulation[J],2020,33(16).
APA	Ben Alaya M.A.,Zwiers F.,&Zhang X..(2020).An evaluation of block-maximum-based estimation of very long return period precipitation extremes with a large ensemble climate simulation.Journal of Climate,33(16).
MLA	Ben Alaya M.A.,et al."An evaluation of block-maximum-based estimation of very long return period precipitation extremes with a large ensemble climate simulation".Journal of Climate 33.16(2020).