气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Comparing Methods to Constrain Future European Climate Projections Using a Consistent Framework

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0953.1
	Comparing Methods to Constrain Future European Climate Projections Using a Consistent Framework
	Brunner L.; McSweeney C.; Ballinger A.P.; Befort D.J.; Benassi M.; Booth B.; Coppola E.; Vries H.D.; Harris G.; Hegerl G.C.; Knutti R.; Lenderink G.; Lowe J.; Nogherotto R.; O'Reilly C.; Qasmi S.; Ribes A.; Stocchi P.; Undorf S.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	8671
结束页码	8692
卷号	33 期号:20
英文摘要	Political decisions, adaptation planning, and impact assessments need reliable estimates of future climate change and related uncertainties. To provide these estimates, different approaches to constrain, filter, or weight climate model projections into probabilistic distributions have been proposed. However, an assessment of multiple such methods to, for example, expose cases of agreement or disagreement, is often hindered by a lack of coordination, with methods focusing on a variety of variables, time periods, regions, or model pools. Here, a consistent framework is developed to allow a quantitative comparison of eight different methods; focus is given to summer temperature and precipitation change in three spatial regimes in Europe in 2041-60 relative to 1995-2014. The analysis draws on projections from several large ensembles, the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble, and perturbed physics ensembles, all using the high-emission scenario RCP8.5. The methods' key features are summarized, assumptions are discussed, and resulting constrained distributions are presented. Method agreement is found to be dependent on the investigated region but is generally higher for median changes than for the uncertainty ranges. This study, therefore, highlights the importance of providing clear context about how different methods affect the assessed uncertainty-in particular, the upper and lower percentiles that are of interest to risk-averse stakeholders. The comparison also exposes cases in which diverse lines of evidence lead to diverging constraints; additional work is needed to understand how the underlying differences between methods lead to such disagreements and to provide clear guidance to users. ©2020 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Climate change; Probability distributions; Risk assessment; Uncertainty analysis; Impact assessments; Multi-model ensemble; Political decision; Precipitation change; Probabilistic distribution; Quantitative comparison; Reliable estimates; Summer temperature; Climate models; adaptive management; climate modeling; climate prediction; CMIP; comparative study; ensemble forecasting; future prospect; precipitation assessment; probability; quantitative analysis; summer; Europe
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171158
作者单位	Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Eth Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics,Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy; Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands; Université de Toulouse, Cnrm, MÃtÃo-France, Cnrs, Toulouse, France; National Research Council of Italy, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, CNR-ISAC, Bologna, Italy; Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Brunner L.,McSweeney C.,Ballinger A.P.,et al. Comparing Methods to Constrain Future European Climate Projections Using a Consistent Framework[J],2020,33(20).
APA	Brunner L..,McSweeney C..,Ballinger A.P..,Befort D.J..,Benassi M..,...&Undorf S..(2020).Comparing Methods to Constrain Future European Climate Projections Using a Consistent Framework.Journal of Climate,33(20).
MLA	Brunner L.,et al."Comparing Methods to Constrain Future European Climate Projections Using a Consistent Framework".Journal of Climate 33.20(2020).