气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Greater future U.K. winter precipitation increase in new convection-permitting scenarios

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0089.1
	Greater future U.K. winter precipitation increase in new convection-permitting scenarios
	Kendon E.J.; Roberts N.M.; Fosser G.; Martin G.M.; Lock A.P.; Murphy J.M.; Senior C.A.; Tucker S.O.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	7303
结束页码	7318
卷号	33 期号:17
英文摘要	For the first time, a model at a resolution on par with operational weather forecast models has been used for national climate scenarios. An ensemble of 12 climate change projections at convection-permitting (2.2 km) scale has been run for the United Kingdom, as part of the UK Climate Projections (UKCP) project. Contrary to previous studies, these show greater future increases in winter mean precipitation in the convection-permitting model compared with the coarser (12 km) driving model. A large part (60%) of the future increase in winter precipitation occurrence over land comes from an increase in convective showers in the 2.2 km model, which are most likely triggered over the sea and advected inland with potentially further development. In the 12 km model, increases in precipitation occurrence over the sea, largely due to an increase in convective showers, do not extend over the land. This is partly due to known limitations of the convection parameterization scheme, used in conventional coarse-resolution climate models, which acts locally without direct memory and so has no ability to advect diagnosed convection over the land or trigger new showers along convective outflow boundaries. This study shows that the importance of accurately representing convection extends beyond short-duration precipitation extremes and the summer season to projecting future changes in mean precipitation in winter. © 2020 American Meteorological Society. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Climate change; Weather forecasting; Climate change projections; Climate projection; Climate scenarios; Convection parameterization; Mean precipitation; Precipitation extremes; Weather forecast models; Winter precipitation; Climate models; atmospheric convection; atmospheric modeling; climate prediction; ensemble forecasting; future prospect; image resolution; precipitation (climatology); weather forecasting; winter; United Kingdom
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171145
作者单位	Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Met Office@Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; Scuola Universitaria Superiore IUSS, Pavia, Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kendon E.J.,Roberts N.M.,Fosser G.,et al. Greater future U.K. winter precipitation increase in new convection-permitting scenarios[J],2020,33(17).
APA	Kendon E.J..,Roberts N.M..,Fosser G..,Martin G.M..,Lock A.P..,...&Tucker S.O..(2020).Greater future U.K. winter precipitation increase in new convection-permitting scenarios.Journal of Climate,33(17).
MLA	Kendon E.J.,et al."Greater future U.K. winter precipitation increase in new convection-permitting scenarios".Journal of Climate 33.17(2020).