气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Isolating the evolving contributions of anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases: A new CESM1 large ensemble community resource

CCPortal

DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0123.1
	Isolating the evolving contributions of anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases: A new CESM1 large ensemble community resource
	Deser C.; Phillips A.S.; Simpson I.R.; Rosenbloom N.; Coleman D.; Lehner F.; Pendergrass A.G.; Dinezio P.; Stevenson S.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	7835
结束页码	7858
卷号	33 期号:18
英文摘要	The evolving roles of anthropogenic aerosols (AER) and greenhouse gases (GHG) in driving large-scale patterns of precipitation and SST trends during 1920–2080 are studied using a new set of ‘‘all-but-one-forcing’’ initial-condition large ensembles (LEs) with the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1), which complement the original ‘‘all-forcing’’ CESM1 LE (ALL). The large number of ensemble members (15–20) in each of the new LEs enables regional impacts of AER and GHG to be isolated from the noise of the model’s internal variability. Our analysis approach, based on running 50-yr trends, accommodates geographical and temporal changes in patterns of forcing and response. AER are shown to be the primary driver of large-scale patterns of externally forced trends in ALL before the late 1970s, and GHG to dominate thereafter. The AER and GHG forced trends are spatially distinct except during the 1970s transition phase when aerosol changes are mainly confined to lower latitudes. The transition phase is also characterized by a relative minimum in the amplitude of forced trend patterns in ALL, due to a combination of reduced AER and partially offsetting effects of AER and GHG. Internal variability greatly limits the detectability of AER- and GHG-forced trend patterns in individual realizations based on pattern correlation metrics, especially during the historical period, highlighting the need for LEs. We estimate that,20% of the spatial variances of observed precipitation and SST trends are attributable to AER and GHG forcing, although model biases in patterns of forced response and signal-to-noise may affect this estimate. © 2020 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Greenhouse gases; Signal to noise ratio; Anthropogenic aerosols; Community resources; Earth system model; Greenhouse gases (GHG); Historical periods; Initial conditions; Internal variability; Pattern correlation; Aerosols; aerosol; anthropogenic source; greenhouse gas; precipitation (climatology); sea surface temperature; trend analysis
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171131
作者单位	Climate and Global Dynamics Division, NCAR, Boulder, CO, United States; University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, United States; University of California at Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Deser C.,Phillips A.S.,Simpson I.R.,et al. Isolating the evolving contributions of anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases: A new CESM1 large ensemble community resource[J],2020,33(18).
APA	Deser C..,Phillips A.S..,Simpson I.R..,Rosenbloom N..,Coleman D..,...&Stevenson S..(2020).Isolating the evolving contributions of anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases: A new CESM1 large ensemble community resource.Journal of Climate,33(18).
MLA	Deser C.,et al."Isolating the evolving contributions of anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases: A new CESM1 large ensemble community resource".Journal of Climate 33.18(2020).