气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Intermodel spread in the pattern effect and its contribution to climate sensitivity in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-1011.1
	Intermodel spread in the pattern effect and its contribution to climate sensitivity in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models
	Dong Y.; Armour K.C.; Zelinka M.D.; Proistosescu C.; Battisti D.S.; Zhou C.; Andrews T.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	7755
结束页码	7775
卷号	33 期号:18
英文摘要	Radiative feedbacks depend on the spatial patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) and thus can change over time as SST patterns evolve—the so-called pattern effect. This study investigates intermodel differences in the magnitude of the pattern effect and how these differences contribute to the spread in effective equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) within CMIP5 and CMIP6 models. Effective ECS in CMIP5 estimated from 150-yr-long abrupt43CO2 simulations is on average 10% higher than that estimated from the early portion (first 50 years) of those simulations, which serves as an analog for historical warming; this difference is reduced to 7% on average in CMIP6. The (negative) net radiative feedback weakens over the course of the abrupt43CO2 simulations in the vast majority of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, but this weakening is less dramatic on average in CMIP6. For both ensembles, the total variance in the effective ECS is found to be dominated by the spread in radiative response on fast time scales, rather than the spread in feedback changes. Using Green’s functions derived from two AGCMs shows that the spread in feedbacks on fast time scales may be primarily due to differences in atmospheric model physics, whereas the spread in feedback evolution is primarily governed by differences in SST patterns. Intermodel spread in feedback evolution is well explained by differences in the relative warming in the west Pacific warm-pool regions for the CMIP5 models, but this relation fails to explain differences across the CMIP6 models, suggesting that a stronger sensitivity of extratropical clouds to surface warming may also contribute to feedback changes in CMIP6. Ó 2020 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Oceanography; Surface waters; American meteorological societies; Atmospheric model; Climate sensitivity; Pattern effect; Sea surface temperature (SST); Spatial patterns; Surface warming; Total variance; Climate models; air-sea interaction; climate modeling; Green function; sea surface temperature; spatial analysis; warm pool; warming; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (West)
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171129
作者单位	Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; School of Oceanography, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Department of Geology, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Urbana, IL, United States; Department of Atmospheric Physics, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Dong Y.,Armour K.C.,Zelinka M.D.,et al. Intermodel spread in the pattern effect and its contribution to climate sensitivity in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models[J],2020,33(18).
APA	Dong Y..,Armour K.C..,Zelinka M.D..,Proistosescu C..,Battisti D.S..,...&Andrews T..(2020).Intermodel spread in the pattern effect and its contribution to climate sensitivity in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models.Journal of Climate,33(18).
MLA	Dong Y.,et al."Intermodel spread in the pattern effect and its contribution to climate sensitivity in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models".Journal of Climate 33.18(2020).