气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A simple trajectory model for climatological study of tropical cyclones

CCPortal

DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0285.1
	A simple trajectory model for climatological study of tropical cyclones
	Shan K.; Yu X.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	7777
结束页码	7786
卷号	33 期号:18
英文摘要	The establishment of a tropical cyclone (TC) trajectory model that can represent the basic physics and is practically advantageous considering both accuracy and computational cost is essential to the climatological studies of various global TC activities. In this study, a simple deterministic model is proposed based on a newly developed semiempirical formula for the beta drift under known conditions of the environmental steering flow. To verify the proposed model, all historical TC tracks in the western North Pacific and the North Atlantic Ocean basins during the period 1979–2018 are simulated and statistically compared with the relevant results derived from observed data. The proposed model is shown to well capture the spatial distribution patterns of the TC occurrence frequency in the two ocean basins. Prevailing TC tracks as well as the latitudinal distribution of the landfall TC number in the western North Pacific Ocean basin are also shown to agree better with the results derived from observed data, as compared to the existing models that took different strategies to include the effect of the beta drift. It is then concluded that the present model is advantageous in terms of not only the accuracy but also the capacity to accommodate the varying climate. It is thus believed that the proposed TC trajectory model has the potential to be used for assessing possible impacts of climate change on tropical cyclone activities. Ó 2020 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Climate change; Hurricanes; Oceanography; Storms; Trajectories; Tropics; American meteorological societies; Deterministic modeling; Latitudinal distribution; North Atlantic Ocean; Semi-empirical formulas; Spatial distribution patterns; Tropical cyclone activity; Western North Pacific; Climate models; atmospheric modeling; climate change; climatology; spatial distribution; storm track; trajectory; tropical cyclone; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (North); Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (North)
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171122
作者单位	State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Shan K.,Yu X.. A simple trajectory model for climatological study of tropical cyclones[J],2020,33(18).
APA	Shan K.,&Yu X..(2020).A simple trajectory model for climatological study of tropical cyclones.Journal of Climate,33(18).
MLA	Shan K.,et al."A simple trajectory model for climatological study of tropical cyclones".Journal of Climate 33.18(2020).