气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projected end-of-century changes in the South American monsoon in the CESM large ensemble

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0645.1
	Projected end-of-century changes in the South American monsoon in the CESM large ensemble
	Sena A.C.T.; Magnusdottir G.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	7859
结束页码	7874
卷号	33 期号:18
英文摘要	Projected changes in the South American monsoon system by the end of the twenty-first century are analyzed using the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LENS). The wet season is shorter in LENS when compared to observations, with the mean onset occurring 19 days later and the mean retreat date 21 days earlier in the season. Despite a precipitation bias, the seasonality of rainfall over South America is reproduced in LENS, as well as the main circulation features associated with the development of the South American monsoon. Both the onset and retreat of the wet season over South America are delayed in the future compared to current climate by 3 and 7 days, respectively, with a slightly longer wet season. Central and southeastern Brazil are projected to get wetter as a result of moisture convergence from the strengthening of the South Atlantic low-level jet and a weaker South Atlantic subtropical high. The Amazon is projected to get drier by the end of the century, negatively affecting rain forest productivity. During the wet season, an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is found over most of South America, and especially over northeastern and southern Brazil and La Plata. Meanwhile, during the dry season an increase in the maximum number of consecutive dry days is found over northeastern Brazil and the northern Amazon. © 2020 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Rain; Earth system model; Extreme precipitation events; Moisture convergence; Monsoon system; Northeastern Brazil; South Atlantic; Southeastern Brazil; Southern Brazil; Atmospheric thermodynamics; atmospheric circulation; atmospheric moisture; climate modeling; ensemble forecasting; jet stream; monsoon; precipitation (climatology); rainfall; seasonality; wet season; Amazonia; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (South); Brazil
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171120
作者单位	University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sena A.C.T.,Magnusdottir G.. Projected end-of-century changes in the South American monsoon in the CESM large ensemble[J],2020,33(18).
APA	Sena A.C.T.,&Magnusdottir G..(2020).Projected end-of-century changes in the South American monsoon in the CESM large ensemble.Journal of Climate,33(18).
MLA	Sena A.C.T.,et al."Projected end-of-century changes in the South American monsoon in the CESM large ensemble".Journal of Climate 33.18(2020).