气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The impact of anthropogenic forcing and natural processes on past; present; and future rainfall over Victoria; Australia

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0759.1
	The impact of anthropogenic forcing and natural processes on past; present; and future rainfall over Victoria; Australia
	Rauniyar S.P.; Power S.B.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	8087
结束页码	8106
卷号	33 期号:18
英文摘要	Cool-season (April to October) rainfall dominates the annual average rainfall over Victoria, Australia, and is important for agriculture and replenishing reservoirs. Rainfall during the cool season has been unusually low since the beginning of the Millennium Drought in 1997 (;12% below the twentieth-century average). In this study, 24 CMIP5 climate models are used to estimate 1) the extent to which this drying is driven by external forcing and 2) future rainfall, taking both external forcing and internal natural climate variability into account. All models have preindustrial, historical, and twenty-first-century (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) simulations. It is found that rainfall in the past two decades is below the preindustrial average in two-thirds or more of model simulations. However, the magnitude of the multimodel median externally forced drying is equivalent to only 20% of the observed drying (interquartile range of 40% to 24%), suggesting that the drying is dominated by internally generated rainfall variability. Underestimation of internal variability of rainfall by the models, however, increases the uncertainties in these estimates. According to models the anthropogenically forced drying becomes dominant from 2010 to 2029, when drying is evident in over 90% of the model simulations. For the 2018–37 period, it is found that there is only a;12% chance that internal rainfall variability could completely offset the anthropogenically forced drying. By the late twenty-first century, the anthropogenically forced drying under RCP8.5 is so large that internal variability appears too small to be able to offset it. Confidence in the projections is lowered because models have difficulty in simulating the magnitude of the observed decline in rainfall. Ó 2020 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Agricultural robots; Drying; Rain; Uncertainty analysis; American meteorological societies; Anthropogenic forcing; Inter quartile ranges; Internal variability; Millennium droughts; Natural climate variabilities; Rainfall variability; Victoria , Australia; Climate models; annual variation; atmospheric forcing; CMIP; computer simulation; drought; precipitation intensity; seasonal variation; British Columbia; Canada; Vancouver Island; Victoria [Vancouver Island]
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171119
作者单位	Climate Change and Variability Program, Science to Services, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Climate Change and Variability Program, Science to Services, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rauniyar S.P.,Power S.B.. The impact of anthropogenic forcing and natural processes on past; present; and future rainfall over Victoria; Australia[J],2020,33(18).
APA	Rauniyar S.P.,&Power S.B..(2020).The impact of anthropogenic forcing and natural processes on past; present; and future rainfall over Victoria; Australia.Journal of Climate,33(18).
MLA	Rauniyar S.P.,et al."The impact of anthropogenic forcing and natural processes on past; present; and future rainfall over Victoria; Australia".Journal of Climate 33.18(2020).