气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Warming patterns affect El Niño diversity in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0890.1
	Warming patterns affect El Niño diversity in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models
	Freund M.B.; Brown J.R.; Henley B.J.; Karoly D.J.; Brown J.N.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	8237
结束页码	8260
卷号	33 期号:19
英文摘要	Given the consequences and global significance of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events it is essential to understand the representation of El Niño diversity in climate models for the present day and the future. In recent decades, El Niño events have occurred more frequently in the central Pacific (CP). Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events have increased in intensity. However, the processes and future implications of these observed changes in El Niño are not well understood. Here, the frequency and intensity of El Niño events are assessed in models from phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6), and results are compared to extended instrumental and multicentury paleoclimate records. Future changes of El Niño are stronger for CP events than for EP events and differ between models. Models with a projected La Niña-like mean-state warming pattern show a tendency toward more EP but fewer CP events compared to models with an El Niño-like warming pattern. Among the models with more El Niño-like warming, differences in future El Niño can be partially explained by Pacific decadal variability (PDV). During positive PDV phases, more El Niño events occur, so future frequency changes are mainly determined by projected changes during positive PDV phases. Similarly, the intensity of El Niño is strongest during positive PDV phases. Future changes to El Niño may thus depend on both mean-state warming and decadal-scale natural variability. © 2020 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Atmospheric pressure; Climate models; Climatology; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Eastern pacific; Frequency changes; Natural variability; Pacific decadal variabilities; Paleoclimate records; Southern oscillation; Warming patterns; Nickel compounds; climate change; climate modeling; El Nino; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; Pacific Decadal Oscillation; warming; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (Central); Pacific Ocean (East)
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171108
作者单位	CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Melbourne, School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Climate and Energy College, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia; School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia; School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Clayton, School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia; National Environmental Science Programme, Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub, CSIRO, Aspendale, VIC, Australia; CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Freund M.B.,Brown J.R.,Henley B.J.,et al. Warming patterns affect El Niño diversity in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models[J],2020,33(19).
APA	Freund M.B.,Brown J.R.,Henley B.J.,Karoly D.J.,&Brown J.N..(2020).Warming patterns affect El Niño diversity in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models.Journal of Climate,33(19).
MLA	Freund M.B.,et al."Warming patterns affect El Niño diversity in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models".Journal of Climate 33.19(2020).