气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A 450-year perspective on california precipitation ‘‘flips’’

CCPortal

DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0828.1
	A 450-year perspective on california precipitation ‘‘flips’’
	Wahl E.R.; Hoell A.; Zorita E.; Gille E.; Diaz H.F.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	10221
结束页码	10237
卷号	33 期号:23
英文摘要	Year-to-year extreme alterations in California (CA) precipitation, denoted here as flips, present significant challenges to resource managers, emergency management officials, and the state’s economy and ecosystems generally. We evaluate regional (north, central, and south) and statewide flip behavior since 1571 CE utilizing instrumental data and paleoclimate reconstructions. Flips, defined as dry-to-wet and wet-to-dry consecutive alterations between the tailward 30th percentiles of the precipitation distribution, have occurred throughout this period without indication of systematic change through the recent time of modern anthropogenic forcing. Statewide ‘‘grand flips’’ are notably absent between 1892 and 1957; bootstrap Monte Carlo analysis indicates that this feature is consistent with random behavior. Composites for northeastern Pacific Ocean winter sea level pressure and jet-stream winds associated with flip events indicate anomalous high or low pressure during the core precipitation delivery season for dry or wet flip years, respectively, and jet-stream conditions that are also like those associated with individual dry or wet years. Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures play a partial role in both dry-to-wet and wet-to-dry events in central and southern CA in the longer-period reconstruction data, with response restricted primarily to southern CA in the smaller sample-size instrumental data. Knowledge of a prior year extreme, potentially representing initiation of a flip, provides no enhancement of prediction quality for the second year beyond that achievable from skillful seasonal prediction of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures. Overall, results indicate that the first-order nature of flip behavior from the later 1500s reflects the quasi–white noise nature of precipitation variability in CA, influenced secondarily by equatorial Pacific sea surface conditions, particularly in southern CA. © 2020 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).
英文关键词	Atmospheric temperature; Precipitation (meteorology); Risk management; Sea level; Submarine geophysics; Surface properties; White noise; Anthropogenic forcing; Emergency management; North-eastern Pacific; Paleoclimate reconstruction; Precipitation distribution; Precipitation variability; Sea surface temperature (SST); Sea-surface conditions; Surface waters; atmospheric circulation; climate modeling; climate variation; data assimilation; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; Monte Carlo analysis; numerical model; paleoclimate; precipitation (climatology); California; United States
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171075
作者单位	NOAA, National Centers for Environmental Information, Center for Weather and Climate/Products Branch, Boulder, CO, United States; NOAA, Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States; Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, Geesthacht, Germany; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States; University of Hawai‘i at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wahl E.R.,Hoell A.,Zorita E.,等. A 450-year perspective on california precipitation ‘‘flips’’[J],2020,33(23).
APA	Wahl E.R.,Hoell A.,Zorita E.,Gille E.,&Diaz H.F..(2020).A 450-year perspective on california precipitation ‘‘flips’’.Journal of Climate,33(23).
MLA	Wahl E.R.,et al."A 450-year perspective on california precipitation ‘‘flips’’".Journal of Climate 33.23(2020).