气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future changes and controlling factors of the eight regional monsoons projected by cmip6 models

CCPortal

DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0236.1
	Future changes and controlling factors of the eight regional monsoons projected by cmip6 models
	Jin C.; Wang B.; Liu J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	9307
结束页码	9326
卷号	33 期号:21
英文摘要	An accurate prediction of land monsoon precipitation (LMP) is critical for the sustainable future of the planet as it provides water resources for more than two-thirds of the global population. Here, we show that the ensemble mean of 24 CMIP6 (phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models projects that, under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2-4.5 (SSP2-4.5) scenario, summer LMP will very likely increase in South Asia (∼4.1% °C-1), likely increase in East Asia (∼4.6% °C-1) and northern Africa (∼2.9% °C-1), and likely decrease in North America (∼22.3% °C-1). The annual mean LMP in three Southern Hemisphere monsoon regions will likely remain unchanged due to significantly decreased winter precipitation. Regional mean LMP changes are dominated by the change in upward moisture transport with moderate contribution from evaporation and can be approximated by the changes of the product of the midtropospheric ascent and 850-hPa specific humidity. Greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced thermodynamic effects increase moisture content and stabilize the atmosphere, tending to offset each other. The spatially uniform increase of humidity cannot explain markedly different regional LMP changes. Intermodel spread analysis demonstrates that the GHG induced circulation changes (dynamic effects) are primarily responsible for the regional differences. The GHGs induce a warm land-cool ocean pattern that strengthens the Asian monsoon, and a warm North Atlantic and Sahara that enhances the northern African monsoon, as well as an equatorial central Pacific warming that weakens the North American monsoon. CMIP6 models generally capture realistic monsoon rainfall climatology, but commonly overproduce summer rainfall variability. The models' biases in projected regional SST and land-sea thermal contrast likely contribute to the models' uncertainties in the projected monsoon rainfall changes. © 2020 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Atmospheric thermodynamics; Greenhouse gases; Moisture; Oceanography; Rain; Water resources; Controlling factors; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Greenhouse gas (GHG); Land-sea thermal contrasts; Monsoon precipitation; Regional differences; Thermodynamic effect; Winter precipitation; Electric power system interconnection; climate change; climate modeling; climate prediction; CMIP; ensemble forecasting; future prospect; land surface; monsoon; regional climate; Africa; Far East; North America; South Asia
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171071
作者单位	Key Laboratory for Virtual Geographic Environment, Ministry of Education, State Key Laboratory Cultivation Base of Geographical Environment Evolution of Jiangsu Province, Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development, School of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, China; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hawai'i at Mánoa, Honolulu, HI, United States; Earth System Modeling Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jin C.,Wang B.,Liu J.. Future changes and controlling factors of the eight regional monsoons projected by cmip6 models[J],2020,33(21).
APA	Jin C.,Wang B.,&Liu J..(2020).Future changes and controlling factors of the eight regional monsoons projected by cmip6 models.Journal of Climate,33(21).
MLA	Jin C.,et al."Future changes and controlling factors of the eight regional monsoons projected by cmip6 models".Journal of Climate 33.21(2020).