气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A comparison of intra-annual and long-term trend scaling of extreme precipitation with temperature in a large-ensemble regional climate simulation

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0920.1
	A comparison of intra-annual and long-term trend scaling of extreme precipitation with temperature in a large-ensemble regional climate simulation
	Sun Q.; Zwiers F.; Zhang X.; Li G.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	9233
结束页码	9245
卷号	33 期号:21
英文摘要	Long-term changes in extreme daily and subdaily precipitation simulated by climate models are often compared with corresponding temperature changes to estimate the sensitivity of extreme precipitation to warming. Such "trend scaling"rates are difficult to estimate from observations, however, because of limited data availability and high background variability. Intra-annual temperature scaling (here called binning scaling), which relates extreme precipitation to temperature at or near the time of occurrence, has been suggested as a possible substitute for trend scaling. We use a large ensemble simulation of the Canadian regional climate model (CanRCM4) to assess this possibility, considering both daily near-surface air temperature and daily dewpoint temperature as scaling variables. We find that binning curves that are based on precipitation data for the whole year generally look like the composite of binning curves for winter and summer, with the lower temperature portion similar to winter and the higher temperature portion similar to summer, indicating that binning curves reflect seasonal changes in the relationship between temperature and extreme precipitation. The magnitude and spatial pattern of binning and trend scaling rates are also quantitatively different, with little spatial correlation between them, regardless of precipitation duration or choice of temperature variable. The evidence therefore suggests that binning scaling with temperature is not a reliable predictor for future changes in precipitation extremes in the climate simulated by CanRCM4. Nevertheless, external forcing does have a discernable influence on binning curves, which are seen to shift upward and to the right in some regions, consistent with a general increase in extreme precipitation. © 2020 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Climate change; Precipitation (meteorology); Dewpoint temperature; Extreme precipitation; Near surface air temperature; Precipitation extremes; Regional climate modeling; Regional climate simulation; Spatial correlations; Temperature variables; Climate models; annual variation; climate modeling; ensemble forecasting; numerical model; precipitation (climatology); precipitation intensity; regional climate; temperature profile
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171054
作者单位	Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sun Q.,Zwiers F.,Zhang X.,et al. A comparison of intra-annual and long-term trend scaling of extreme precipitation with temperature in a large-ensemble regional climate simulation[J],2020,33(21).
APA	Sun Q.,Zwiers F.,Zhang X.,&Li G..(2020).A comparison of intra-annual and long-term trend scaling of extreme precipitation with temperature in a large-ensemble regional climate simulation.Journal of Climate,33(21).
MLA	Sun Q.,et al."A comparison of intra-annual and long-term trend scaling of extreme precipitation with temperature in a large-ensemble regional climate simulation".Journal of Climate 33.21(2020).