气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Predictive skill assessment for land water storage in CMIP5 decadal hindcasts by a global reconstruction of GRACE satellite data

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0042.1
	Predictive skill assessment for land water storage in CMIP5 decadal hindcasts by a global reconstruction of GRACE satellite data
	Jensen L.; Eicker A.; Stacke T.; Dobslaw H.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	9497
结束页码	9509
卷号	33 期号:21
英文摘要	The evaluation of decadal climate predictions against observations is crucial for their benefit to stakeholders. While the skill of such forecasts has been verified for several atmospheric variables, land hydrological states such as terrestrial water storage (TWS) have not been extensively investigated yet due to a lack of long observational records. Anomalies of TWS are globally observed with the satellite missions GRACE (2002-2017) and GRACE-FO (since 2018). By means of a GRACE-like reconstruction of TWS available over 41 years, we demonstrate that this data type can be used to evaluate the skill of decadal prediction experiments made available from different Earth system models as part of both CMIP5 and CMIP6. Analysis of correlation and root-mean-square deviation (RMSD) reveals that for the global land average the initialized simulations outperform the historical experiments in the first three forecast years. This predominance originates mainly from equatorial regions where we assume a longer influence of initialization due to longer soil memory times. Evaluated for individual grid cells, the initialization has a largely positive effect on the forecast year 1 TWS states; however, a general grid-scale prediction skill for TWS of more than 2 years could not be identified in this study for CMIP5. First results from decadal hindcasts of three CMIP6 models indicate a predictive skill comparable to CMIP5 for the multimodel mean in general, and a distinct positive influence of the improved soil-hydrology scheme implemented in the MPIESM for CMIP6 in particular. © 2020 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Climate models; Digital storage; Forecasting; Atmospheric variables; Climate prediction; Decadal predictions; Earth system model; Equatorial regions; Land water storage; Root mean square deviations; Terrestrial water storage; Geodetic satellites; assessment method; climate prediction; CMIP; GRACE; hindcasting; reconstruction; satellite data; soil moisture; water storage
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171050
作者单位	Geodesy and Geoinformatics, HafenCity University, Hamburg, Germany; Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Centre for Materials and Coastal Research, Geesthacht, Germany; Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), Potsdam, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jensen L.,Eicker A.,Stacke T.,et al. Predictive skill assessment for land water storage in CMIP5 decadal hindcasts by a global reconstruction of GRACE satellite data[J],2020,33(21).
APA	Jensen L.,Eicker A.,Stacke T.,&Dobslaw H..(2020).Predictive skill assessment for land water storage in CMIP5 decadal hindcasts by a global reconstruction of GRACE satellite data.Journal of Climate,33(21).
MLA	Jensen L.,et al."Predictive skill assessment for land water storage in CMIP5 decadal hindcasts by a global reconstruction of GRACE satellite data".Journal of Climate 33.21(2020).