气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Paleoclimate constraints on the spatiotemporal character of past and future droughts

CCPortal

DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0004.1
	Paleoclimate constraints on the spatiotemporal character of past and future droughts
	Coats S.; Smerdon J.E.; Stevenson S.; Fasullo J.T.; Otto-Bliesner B.; Ault T.R.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	9883
结束页码	9903
卷号	33 期号:22
英文摘要	Machine-learning-based methods that identify drought in three-dimensional space–time are applied to climate model simulations and tree-ring-based reconstructions of hydroclimate over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics for the past 1000 years, as well as twenty-first-century projections. Analyzing reconstructed and simulated drought in this context provides a paleoclimate constraint on the spatiotemporal characteristics of simulated droughts. Climate models project that there will be large increases in the persistence and severity of droughts over the coming century, but with little change in their spatial extent. Nevertheless, climate models exhibit biases in the spatiotemporal characteristics of persistent and severe droughts over parts of the Northern Hemisphere. We use the paleoclimate record and results from a linear inverse modeling-based framework to conclude that climate models underestimate the range of potential future hydroclimate states. Complicating this picture, however, are divergent changes in the characteristics of persistent and severe droughts when quantified using different hydroclimate metrics. Collectively our results imply that these divergent responses and the aforementioned biases must be better understood if we are to increase confidence in future hydroclimate projections. Importantly, the novel framework presented herein can be applied to other climate features to robustly describe their spatiotemporal characteristics and provide constraints on future changes to those characteristics. © 2020 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Climate change; Drought; Inverse problems; Three dimensional computer graphics; Climate model simulations; Linear inverse models; Northern Hemispheres; Paleoclimate records; Spatial extent; Spatio-temporal character; Spatiotemporal characteristics; Three dimensional space; Climate models; artificial intelligence; climate change; climate modeling; drought; machine learning; Northern Hemisphere; paleoclimate; reconstruction; spatiotemporal analysis
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171047
作者单位	Department of Earth Sciences, University of Hawai‘i at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States; Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, United States; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States; Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Coats S.,Smerdon J.E.,Stevenson S.,et al. Paleoclimate constraints on the spatiotemporal character of past and future droughts[J],2020,33(22).
APA	Coats S.,Smerdon J.E.,Stevenson S.,Fasullo J.T.,Otto-Bliesner B.,&Ault T.R..(2020).Paleoclimate constraints on the spatiotemporal character of past and future droughts.Journal of Climate,33(22).
MLA	Coats S.,et al."Paleoclimate constraints on the spatiotemporal character of past and future droughts".Journal of Climate 33.22(2020).