气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Simulation of Northeast U.S. extreme precipitation and its associated circulation by CMIP5 models

CCPortal

DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0757.1
	Simulation of Northeast U.S. extreme precipitation and its associated circulation by CMIP5 models
	Agel L.; Barlow M.; Polonia J.; Coe D.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	9817
结束页码	9834
卷号	33 期号:22
英文摘要	Historical simulations from 14 models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are evaluated for their ability to reproduce observed precipitation in the northeastern United States and its associated circulation, with particular emphasis on extreme (top 1%) precipitation. The models are compared to observations in terms of the spatial variations of extreme precipitation, seasonal cycles of precipitation and extreme precipitation frequency and intensity, and extreme precipitation circulation regimes. The circulation regimes are identified using k-means clustering of 500-hPa geopotential heights on extreme precipitation days, in both observations and in the models. While all models capture an observed northwest-to-southeast gradient of precipitation intensity (reflected in the top 1% threshold), there are substantial differences from observations in the magnitude of the gradient. These differences tend to be more substantial for lower-resolution models. However, regardless of resolution, and despite a bias toward too-frequent precipitation, many of the models capture the seasonality of observed daily precipitation intensity, and the approximate magnitude and seasonality of observed extreme precipitation intensity. Many of the simulated extreme precipitation circulation patterns are visually similar to the set of observed patterns. However, the location and magnitude of specific troughs and ridges within the patterns, as well as the seasonality of the patterns, may differ substantially from the observed corresponding patterns. A series of metrics is developed based on the observed regional characteristics to facilitate comparison between models. © 2020 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Climate models; K-means clustering; Circulation patterns; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Daily precipitations; Extreme precipitation; Geo-potential heights; Historical simulation; Precipitation intensity; Regional characteristics; Precipitation (meteorology); atmospheric circulation; computer simulation; extreme event; numerical model; precipitation assessment; seasonality; spatiotemporal analysis; United States
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171040
作者单位	Department of Environmental, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Massachusetts Lowell, Lowell, MA, United States; Department of Environmental, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, Climate Change Initiative, University of Massachusetts Lowell, Lowell, MA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Agel L.,Barlow M.,Polonia J.,et al. Simulation of Northeast U.S. extreme precipitation and its associated circulation by CMIP5 models[J],2020,33(22).
APA	Agel L.,Barlow M.,Polonia J.,&Coe D..(2020).Simulation of Northeast U.S. extreme precipitation and its associated circulation by CMIP5 models.Journal of Climate,33(22).
MLA	Agel L.,et al."Simulation of Northeast U.S. extreme precipitation and its associated circulation by CMIP5 models".Journal of Climate 33.22(2020).