气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): How well do CMIP6 historical runs match observed Northeast U.S. Precipitation and extreme precipitation

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-1025.1
	How well do CMIP6 historical runs match observed Northeast U.S. Precipitation and extreme precipitation–related circulation?
	Agel L.; Barlow M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	9835
结束页码	9848
卷号	33 期号:22
英文摘要	Sixteen historical simulations (1950–2014) from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are compared to Northeast U.S. observed precipitation and extreme precipitation–related synoptic circulation. A set of metrics based on the regional climate is used to assess how realistically the models simulate the observed distribution and seasonality of extreme precipitation, as well as the synoptic patterns associated with extreme precipitation. These patterns are determined by k-means typing of 500-hPa geopotential heights on extreme precipitation days (top 1% of days with precipitation). The metrics are formulated to evaluate the models’ extreme precipitation spatial variations, seasonal frequency, and intensity; and for circulation, the fit to observed patterns, pattern seasonality, and pattern location of extreme precipitation. Based on the metrics, the models vary considerably in their ability to simulate different aspects of regional precipitation, and a realistic simulation of the seasonality and distribution of precipitation does not necessarily correspond to a realistic simulation of the circulation patterns (reflecting the underlying dynamics of the precipitation), and vice versa. This highlights the importance of assessing both precipitation and its associated circulation. While the models vary in their ability to reproduce observed results, in general the higher-resolution models score higher in terms of the metrics. Most models produce more frequent precipitation than that for observations, but capture the seasonality of precipitation intensity well, and capture at least several of the key characteristics of extreme precipitation–related circulation. These results do not appear to reflect a substantial improvement over a similar analysis of selected CMIP5 models. © 2020 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Precipitation (meteorology); Circulation patterns; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Extreme precipitation; Geo-potential heights; Historical simulation; Precipitation intensity; Realistic simulation; Synoptic circulations; Climate models; CMIP; extreme event; general circulation model; historical perspective; precipitation assessment; seasonal variation; spatiotemporal analysis; synoptic meteorology; United States
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171039
作者单位	Department of Environmental, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Massachusetts Lowell, Lowell, MA, United States; Department of Environmental, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, Climate Change Initiative, University of Massachusetts Lowell, Lowell, MA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Agel L.,Barlow M.. How well do CMIP6 historical runs match observed Northeast U.S. Precipitation and extreme precipitation–related circulation?[J],2020,33(22).
APA	Agel L.,&Barlow M..(2020).How well do CMIP6 historical runs match observed Northeast U.S. Precipitation and extreme precipitation–related circulation?.Journal of Climate,33(22).
MLA	Agel L.,et al."How well do CMIP6 historical runs match observed Northeast U.S. Precipitation and extreme precipitation–related circulation?".Journal of Climate 33.22(2020).