气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Observational constraint on greenhouse gas and aerosol contributions to global ocean heat content changes

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0091.1
	Observational constraint on greenhouse gas and aerosol contributions to global ocean heat content changes
	Charles E.; Meyssignac B.; Ribes A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	10579
结束页码	10591
卷号	33 期号:24
英文摘要	Observations and climate models are combined to identify an anthropogenic warming signature in the upper ocean heat content (OHC) changes since 1971. We apply a new detection and attribution analysis developed by Ribes et al. that uses a symmetric treatment of the magnitude and the pattern of the climate response to each radiative forcing. A first estimate of the OHC response to natural, anthropogenic, greenhouse gas, and other forcings is derived from a large ensemble of CMIP5 simulations. Observational datasets from historical reconstructions are then used to constrain this estimate. A spatiotemporal observational mask is applied to compare simulations with actual observations and to overcome reconstruction biases. Results on the 0–700-m layer from 1971 to 2005 show that the global OHC would have increased since 1971 by 2.12 6 0.21 3 107 J m22 yr21 in response to GHG emissions alone. But this has been compensated for by other anthropogenic influences (mainly aerosol), which induced an OHC decrease of 0.84 6 0.18 3 107 J m22 yr21. The natural forcing has induced a slight global OHC decrease since 1971 of 0.13 6 0.09 3 107 J m22 yr21. Compared to previous studies we have separated the effect of the GHG forcing from the effect of the other anthropogenic forcing on OHC changes. This has been possible by using a new detection and attribution (D&A) method and by analyzing simultaneously the global OHC trends over 1957–80 and over 1971–2005. This bivariate method takes advantage of the different time variation of the GHG forcing and the aerosol forcing since 1957 to separate both effects and reduce the uncertainty in their estimates. Ó 2020 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).
英文关键词	Aerosols; Atmospheric radiation; Enthalpy; Greenhouse gases; Uncertainty analysis; American meteorological societies; Anthropogenic forcing; Anthropogenic influence; Anthropogenic warming; Copyright informations; Detection and attributions; Historical reconstruction; Reconstruction bias; Climate models; aerosol; anthropogenic source; climate modeling; computer simulation; ensemble forecasting; greenhouse gas; marine atmosphere; numerical model; radiative forcing; reconstruction; spatiotemporal analysis
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171033
作者单位	LEGOS, UMR5566, CNRS, CNES, IRD, Université Paul Sabatier, Toulouse, France; CNRM, University of Toulouse, Météo France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Charles E.,Meyssignac B.,Ribes A.. Observational constraint on greenhouse gas and aerosol contributions to global ocean heat content changes[J],2020,33(24).
APA	Charles E.,Meyssignac B.,&Ribes A..(2020).Observational constraint on greenhouse gas and aerosol contributions to global ocean heat content changes.Journal of Climate,33(24).
MLA	Charles E.,et al."Observational constraint on greenhouse gas and aerosol contributions to global ocean heat content changes".Journal of Climate 33.24(2020).