气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Improved estimates of changes in upper ocean salinity and the hydrological cycle

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0366.1
	Improved estimates of changes in upper ocean salinity and the hydrological cycle
	Cheng L.; Trenberth K.E.; Gruber N.; Abraham J.P.; Fasullo J.T.; Li G.; Mann M.E.; Zhao X.; Zhu J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	10357
结束页码	10381
卷号	33 期号:23
英文摘要	Ocean salinity records the hydrological cycle and its changes, but data scarcity and the large changes in sampling make the reconstructions of long-term salinity changes challenging. Here, we present a new observational estimate of changes in ocean salinity since 1960 from the surface to 2000 m. We overcome some of the inconsistencies present in existing salinity reconstructions by using an interpolation technique that uses information on the spatiotemporal covariability of salinity taken from model simulations. The interpolation technique is comprehensively evaluated using recent Argo-dominated observations through subsample tests. The new product strengthens previous findings that ocean surface and subsurface salinity contrasts have increased (i.e., the existing salinity pattern has amplified). We quantify this contrast by assessing the difference between the salinity in regions of high and low salinity averaged over the top 2000 m, a metric we refer to as SC2000. The increase in SC2000 is highly distinguishable from the sampling error and less affected by interannual variability and sampling error than if this metric was computed just for the surface. SC2000 increased by 1.9% 6 0.6% from 1960 to 1990 and by 3.3% 6 0.4% from 1991 to 2017 (5.2% 6 0.4% for 1960–2017), indicating an acceleration of the pattern amplification in recent decades. Combining this estimate with model simulations, we show that the change in SC2000 since 1960 emerges clearly as an anthropogenic signal from the natural variability. Based on the salinity-contrast metrics and model simulations, we find a water cycle amplification of 2.6% 6 4.4% K21 since 1960, with the larger error than salinity metric mainly being due to model uncertainty. © 2020 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).
英文关键词	Errors; Interpolation; Uncertainty analysis; Anthropogenic signals; Hydrological cycles; Interannual variability; Interpolation techniques; Model simulation; Model uncertainties; Natural variability; Sampling errors; Oceanography; anthropogenic source; climate change; climate modeling; hydrological cycle; model validation; numerical model; salinity; sampling; uncertainty analysis
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171022
作者单位	International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Center for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Environmental Physics Group, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; University of St. Thomas, School of Engineering, St. Paul, MN, United States; Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Cheng L.,Trenberth K.E.,Gruber N.,et al. Improved estimates of changes in upper ocean salinity and the hydrological cycle[J],2020,33(23).
APA	Cheng L..,Trenberth K.E..,Gruber N..,Abraham J.P..,Fasullo J.T..,...&Zhu J..(2020).Improved estimates of changes in upper ocean salinity and the hydrological cycle.Journal of Climate,33(23).
MLA	Cheng L.,et al."Improved estimates of changes in upper ocean salinity and the hydrological cycle".Journal of Climate 33.23(2020).