气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Multi-frequency analysis of simulated versus observed variability in tropospheric temperature

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0023.1
	Multi-frequency analysis of simulated versus observed variability in tropospheric temperature
	Pallotta G.; Santer B.D.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	10383
结束页码	10402
卷号	33 期号:23
英文摘要	Studies seeking to identify a human-caused global warming signal generally rely on climate model estimates of the ‘‘noise’’ of intrinsic natural variability. Assessing the reliability of these noise estimates is of critical importance. We evaluate here the statistical significance of differences between climate model and observational natural variability spectra for global-mean mid- to upper-tropospheric temperature (TMT). We use TMT information from satellites and large multimodel ensembles of forced and unforced simulations. Our main goal is to explore the sensitivity of model-versus-data spectral comparisons to a wide range of subjective decisions. These include the choice of satellite and climate model TMT datasets, the method for separating signal and noise, the frequency range considered, and the statistical model used to represent observed natural variability. Of particular interest is the amplitude of the interdecadal noise against which an anthropogenic tropospheric warming signal must be detected. We find that on time scales of 5–20 years, observed TMT variability is (on average) overestimated by the last two generations of climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. This result is relatively insensitive to different plausible analyst choices, enhancing confidence in previous claims of detectable anthropogenic warming of the troposphere and indicating that these claims may be conservative. A further key finding is that two commonly used statistical models of short-term and long-term memory have deficiencies in their ability to capture the complex shape of observed TMT spectra. © 2020 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).
英文关键词	Global warming; Troposphere; Anthropogenic warming; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Multi-model ensemble; Natural variability; Statistical modeling; Statistical significance; Tropospheric temperature; Tropospheric warming; Climate models; air temperature; climate modeling; climate variation; global warming; satellite data; spectral analysis; troposphere; Satellites
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171019
作者单位	Applied Statistics Group, Computational Engineering Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States; Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Pallotta G.,Santer B.D.. Multi-frequency analysis of simulated versus observed variability in tropospheric temperature[J],2020,33(23).
APA	Pallotta G.,&Santer B.D..(2020).Multi-frequency analysis of simulated versus observed variability in tropospheric temperature.Journal of Climate,33(23).
MLA	Pallotta G.,et al."Multi-frequency analysis of simulated versus observed variability in tropospheric temperature".Journal of Climate 33.23(2020).