气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Potential predictability of the Silk Road pattern and the Role of SST as inferred from seasonal hindcast experiments of a coupled climate model

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0235.1
	Potential predictability of the Silk Road pattern and the Role of SST as inferred from seasonal hindcast experiments of a coupled climate model
	Li R.K.K.; Tam C.-Y.; Lau N.-C.; Sohn S.-J.; Ahn J.-B.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	9567
结束页码	9580
卷号	33 期号:22
英文摘要	The Silk Road pattern (SR) is a leading mode of atmospheric circulation over midlatitude Eurasia in boreal summer. Its temporal phase is known to be unpredictable in many models. Previous studies have not reached a clear consensus on the role of sea surface temperature (SST) associated with SR. By comparing seasonal hindcasts from the Pusan National University (PNU) coupled general circulation model with reanalysis, we investigate if there are any sources of predictability originating from the SST. It was found that the PNU model cannot predict SR temporally. In fact, SR is associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the model hindcasts, in contrast to reanalysis results in which SR is more associated with North Atlantic SST anomalies. The PNU system, however, shows potential predictability in SR associated with tropical Pacific SST. Bias in stationary Rossby waveguides is proposed as an explanation for the SR-ENSO relationship in hindcast runs. Model upper-level wind bias in the North Atlantic results in a less continuous waveguide connecting the North Atlantic to Asia, and may hinder wave propagations induced by North Atlantic SST to trigger SR. On the other hand, model upper-level wind bias in the subtropical western Pacific may favor westward propagation of zonally elongated waves from the ENSO region to trigger SR. This study implies that the role of SST with regard to SR can be substantially changed depending on the fidelity of model upper-level background winds. © 2020 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Atmospheric pressure; Climate models; Climatology; Crack propagation; Roads and streets; Silk; Surface waters; Tropics; Waveguides; Atmospheric circulation; Background winds; Continuous waveguides; Coupled climate model; Coupled general circulation models; Sea surface temperature (SST); Southern oscillation; Western Pacific; Oceanography; air-sea interaction; atmospheric circulation; atmospheric dynamics; climate modeling; hindcasting; Rossby wave; sea surface temperature; teleconnection; weather forecasting; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (North); Eurasia; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (Tropical)
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171006
作者单位	Institute of Environment, Energy and Sustainability, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Institute of Environment, Energy and Sustainability, Earth System Science Programme, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Institute of Environment, Energy and Sustainability, Department of Geography and Resource Management, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; APEC Climate Center, Busan, South Korea; Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li R.K.K.,Tam C.-Y.,Lau N.-C.,et al. Potential predictability of the Silk Road pattern and the Role of SST as inferred from seasonal hindcast experiments of a coupled climate model[J],2020,33(22).
APA	Li R.K.K.,Tam C.-Y.,Lau N.-C.,Sohn S.-J.,&Ahn J.-B..(2020).Potential predictability of the Silk Road pattern and the Role of SST as inferred from seasonal hindcast experiments of a coupled climate model.Journal of Climate,33(22).
MLA	Li R.K.K.,et al."Potential predictability of the Silk Road pattern and the Role of SST as inferred from seasonal hindcast experiments of a coupled climate model".Journal of Climate 33.22(2020).