气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): From CMIP3 to CMIP6: Northern hemisphere atmospheric blocking simulation in present and future climate

CCPortal

DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0862.1
	From CMIP3 to CMIP6: Northern hemisphere atmospheric blocking simulation in present and future climate
	DAVINI P.; D'ANDREA F.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	10021
结束页码	10038
卷号	33 期号:23
英文摘要	A comprehensive analysis of the representation of winter and summer Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking in global climate simulations in both present and future climate is presented. Three generations of climate models are considered: CMIP3 (2007), CMIP5 (2012), and CMIP6 (2019). All models show common and extended underestimation of blocking frequencies, but a reduction of the negative biases in successive model generations is observed. However, in some specific regions and seasons such as the winter European sector, even CMIP6 models are not yet able to achieve the observed blocking frequency. For future decades the vast majority of models simulate a decrease of blocking frequency in both winter and summer, with the exception of summer blocking over the Urals and winter blocking over western North America. Winter predicted decreases may be even larger than currently estimated considering that models with larger blocking frequencies, and hence generally smaller errors, show larger reduction. Nonetheless, trends computed over the historical period are weak and often contrast with observations: This is particularly worrisome for summer Greenland blocking where models and observations significantly disagree. Finally, the intensity of global warming is related to blocking changes: wintertime European and North Pacific blocking are expected to decrease following larger global mean temperatures, while Ural summer blocking is expected to increase. © 2020 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Global warming; Atmospheric blocking; Comprehensive analysis; Global climate simulations; Global-mean temperature; Historical periods; Model generation; Northern Hemispheres; Three generations; Climate models; atmospheric blocking; climate change; climate modeling; climate variation; CMIP; computer simulation; future prospect; jet stream; Northern Hemisphere; summer; winter
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/171001
作者单位	Istituto di Scienze dell'Atmosfera e del Clima, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR-ISAC), Torino, Italy; Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique/IPSL, École Normale Supérieure, PSL Research University, CNRS, Paris, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	DAVINI P.,D'ANDREA F.. From CMIP3 to CMIP6: Northern hemisphere atmospheric blocking simulation in present and future climate[J],2020,33(23).
APA	DAVINI P.,&D'ANDREA F..(2020).From CMIP3 to CMIP6: Northern hemisphere atmospheric blocking simulation in present and future climate.Journal of Climate,33(23).
MLA	DAVINI P.,et al."From CMIP3 to CMIP6: Northern hemisphere atmospheric blocking simulation in present and future climate".Journal of Climate 33.23(2020).