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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0892.1
	A global; continental; and regional analysis of changes in extreme precipitation
	Sun Q.; Zhang X.; Zwiers F.; Westra S.; Alexander L.V.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	243
结束页码	258
卷号	34 期号:1
英文摘要	This paper provides an updated analysis of observed changes in extreme precipitation using high-quality station data up to 2018. We examine changes in extreme precipitation represented by annual maxima of 1-day (Rx1day) and 5-day (Rx5day) precipitation accumulations at different spatial scales and attempt to address whether the signal in extreme precipitation has strengthened with several years of additional observations. Extreme precipitation has increased at about two-thirds of stations and the percentage of stations with significantly increasing trends is significantly larger than that can be expected by chance for the globe, continents including Asia, Europe, and North America, and regions including central North America, eastern North America, northern Central America, northern Europe, the Russian Far East, eastern central Asia, and East Asia. The percentage of stations with significantly decreasing trends is not different from that expected by chance. Fitting extreme precipitation to generalized extreme value distributions with global mean surface temperature (GMST) as a covariate reaffirms the statistically significant connections between extreme precipitation and temperature. The global median sensitivity, percentage change in extreme precipitation per 1 K increase in GMST is 6.6% (5.1% to 8.2%; 5%-95% confidence interval) for Rx1day and is slightly smaller at 5.7% (5.0% to 8.0%) for Rx5day. The comparison of results based on observations ending in 2018 with those from data ending in 2000-09 shows a consistent median rate of increase, but a larger percentage of stations with statistically significant increasing trends, indicating an increase in the detectability of extreme precipitation intensification, likely due to the use of longer records. © 2020 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).
英文关键词	Quality control; Regional planning; Confidence interval; Eastern north america; Extreme precipitation; Generalized extreme value distribution; Global mean surface temperature; Rate of increase; Regional analysis; Russian far east; Precipitation (meteorology); climate change; detection method; extreme event; global change; precipitation intensity; rainfall; regional climate; temperature profile; temporal variation; Asia; Central America; Europe; North America; Russian Far East; Russian Federation
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170988
作者单位	Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada; Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia; Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia; Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sun Q.,Zhang X.,Zwiers F.,et al. A global; continental; and regional analysis of changes in extreme precipitation[J],2021,34(1).
APA	Sun Q.,Zhang X.,Zwiers F.,Westra S.,&Alexander L.V..(2021).A global; continental; and regional analysis of changes in extreme precipitation.Journal of Climate,34(1).
MLA	Sun Q.,et al."A global; continental; and regional analysis of changes in extreme precipitation".Journal of Climate 34.1(2021).