气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Sea level pressure trends: Model-based assessment of detection; attribution; and consistency with CMIP5 historical simulations

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0997.1
	Sea level pressure trends: Model-based assessment of detection; attribution; and consistency with CMIP5 historical simulations
	Knutson T.R.; Ploshay J.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	327
结束页码	346
卷号	34 期号:1
英文摘要	Observed sea level pressure (SLP) trends for 1901-10, 1951-10, and 1981-2010 are assessed using two observed data sources (HadSLP2_lowvar and 20CRv3) compared to a CMIP5 multimodel ensemble. The CMIP5 simulations include runs with (i) no external forcing (Control runs), (ii) natural external forcing only (Natural-Forcing), or (iii) natural plus anthropogenic forcings combined (All-Forcings). We assess whether the CMIP5 All-Forcing ensemble is consistent with observations and whether there is model-based evidence for detectable anthropogenic influence for the observed SLP trends. For the 1901-2010 and 1951-2010 trends, a robustly detectable anthropogenic signal in both observational data products is a zonal band of SLP increase extending over much of the Southern Hemisphere extratropics (308-508S). In contrast, the HadSLP2_lowvar and 20CRv3 observed data products disagree on the sign of the century-scale trends in SLP over much of the low-latitude region 258N-258S. These differences will limit confident detection/attribution/ consistency conclusions for lower-latitude regions, at least until the observational data product discrepancies are better reconciled. The Northern Hemisphere extratropics remains a difficult region for identifying any detectable anthropogenic influence for annual- or seasonal-mean SLP trends. Overall, our results highlight the difficulty in detecting and attributing anthropogenic signals in SLP for relatively short time scales. The observed 1981-2010 regional trends typically have a different pattern and magnitude from the simulated externally forced trends. Consequently, our results suggest that internal variability is likely the dominant driver of most observed 1981-2010 regional trend features, including the pronounced increase in SLP over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. © 2021 American Meteorological Society. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Climate models; Sea level; Anthropogenic influence; Anthropogenic signals; Eastern equatorial Pacific; Historical simulation; Internal variability; Multi-model ensemble; Northern Hemispheres; Southern Hemisphere; Signal detection; anthropogenic effect; climate change; climate modeling; decadal variation; detection method; numerical model; sea level change; trend analysis; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (Central); Pacific Ocean (Equatorial)
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170987
作者单位	Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, NJ, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Knutson T.R.,Ploshay J.. Sea level pressure trends: Model-based assessment of detection; attribution; and consistency with CMIP5 historical simulations[J],2021,34(1).
APA	Knutson T.R.,&Ploshay J..(2021).Sea level pressure trends: Model-based assessment of detection; attribution; and consistency with CMIP5 historical simulations.Journal of Climate,34(1).
MLA	Knutson T.R.,et al."Sea level pressure trends: Model-based assessment of detection; attribution; and consistency with CMIP5 historical simulations".Journal of Climate 34.1(2021).