气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Forecasting remote atmospheric responses to decadal kuroshio stability transitions

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0139.1
	Forecasting remote atmospheric responses to decadal kuroshio stability transitions
	Siqueira L.; Kirtman B.P.; Laurindo A.L.C.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	379
结束页码	395
卷号	34 期号:1
英文摘要	Based on observational estimates and global ocean eddy-resolving coupled retrospective initialized predictions, we show that Kuroshio Extension variability affects rainfall variability along the west coast of North America. We show that the teleconnection between the current undulations and downstream rainfall can lead to improved subseasonal to seasonal predictions of precipitation over California, and we demonstrate that capturing these teleconnections requires coupled systems with sufficient ocean resolution (i.e., eddy-resolving), especially over time scales longer than one season. The improved forecast skill is diagnosed in terms of 35 years of retrospective initialized ensemble forecasts with an ocean eddy-resolving and an ocean eddy-parameterized coupled model. Not only does the ocean eddy-resolving model show sensitivity to Kuroshio Extension variability in terms of western North America precipitation, but the ocean eddy-resolving forecasts also show improved forecast skill compared to the ocean eddy-parameterized model. The ocean eddy-parameterized coupled model shows no sensitivity to Kuroshio Extension variability. We also find near-decadal variability associated with a progression of a lower-tropospheric height dipole around the North Pacific and how these height anomalies lead to wind-driven Rossby waves that affect the eddy activity in the Kuroshio Extension with a time lag on the order of four years. This decadal-scale variability (;10 years) opens the possibility of multiyear predictability of western North American rainfall. © 2021 American Meteorological Society. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Mechanical waves; Ocean currents; Parameterization; Rain; Atmospheric response; Decadal variability; Ensemble forecasts; North american rainfalls; Parameterized model; Rainfall variability; Seasonal prediction; Stability transition; Forecasting; air-sea interaction; atmospheric dynamics; climate modeling; climate prediction; climate variation; decadal variation; oceanic current; teleconnection; North America; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (North)
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170972
作者单位	Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL, United States; Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, University of Miami, Miami, FL, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Siqueira L.,Kirtman B.P.,Laurindo A.L.C.. Forecasting remote atmospheric responses to decadal kuroshio stability transitions[J],2021,34(1).
APA	Siqueira L.,Kirtman B.P.,&Laurindo A.L.C..(2021).Forecasting remote atmospheric responses to decadal kuroshio stability transitions.Journal of Climate,34(1).
MLA	Siqueira L.,et al."Forecasting remote atmospheric responses to decadal kuroshio stability transitions".Journal of Climate 34.1(2021).