气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Uncertainty in observational estimates of the aerosol direct radiative effect and forcing

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-1009.1
	Uncertainty in observational estimates of the aerosol direct radiative effect and forcing
	Thorsen T.J.; Winker D.M.; Ferrare R.A.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	195
结束页码	214
卷号	34 期号:1
英文摘要	A lower bound on the uncertainty in observational estimates of the aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE; the direct interaction with solar radiation by all aerosols) and the aerosol direct radiative forcing [DRF; the radiative effect of just anthropogenic aerosols (RFari)] is quantified by making the optimistic assumption that global aerosol observations can be made with the accuracy found in the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sun photometer retrievals. The global-mean all-sky aerosol DRE uncertainty was found to be 1.1 W m22 (one standard deviation). The global-mean all-sky aerosol DRF (RFari) uncertainty was determined to be 0.31 W m22. The total uncertainty in both quantities is dominated by contributions from the aerosol single scattering albedo uncertainty. These uncertainty estimates were compared to a literature survey of mostly satellite-based aerosol DRE/DRF values. Comparisons to previous studies reveal that most have significantly underestimated the aerosol DRE uncertainty. Past estimates of the aerosol DRF uncertainty are smaller (on average) than our optimistic observational estimates, including the aerosol DRF uncertainty given in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). This disconnect between our observation-based uncertainty and that found in past aerosol DRF studies that rely, at least in part, on modeling is discussed. Also quantified is a potential reduction in the current observational uncertainty possible with a future generation of satellite observations that would leverage aerosol typing and more refined vertical information. © 2021 American Meteorological Society. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Aerosols; Atmospheric radiation; Climate change; Solar radiation; Aerosol direct radiative forcing; Aerosol robotic networks; Aerosol single scattering albedo; Anthropogenic aerosols; Intergovernmental panel on climate changes; Satellite observations; Sun-photometer retrievals; Uncertainty estimates; Uncertainty analysis; aerosol; albedo; anthropogenic source; climate forcing; estimation method; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; optical property; radiation budget; radiative forcing; uncertainty analysis
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170970
作者单位	NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Thorsen T.J.,Winker D.M.,Ferrare R.A.. Uncertainty in observational estimates of the aerosol direct radiative effect and forcing[J],2021,34(1).
APA	Thorsen T.J.,Winker D.M.,&Ferrare R.A..(2021).Uncertainty in observational estimates of the aerosol direct radiative effect and forcing.Journal of Climate,34(1).
MLA	Thorsen T.J.,et al."Uncertainty in observational estimates of the aerosol direct radiative effect and forcing".Journal of Climate 34.1(2021).