气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Extreme precipitation changes in Europe from the last millennium to the end of the twenty-first century

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0879.1
	Extreme precipitation changes in Europe from the last millennium to the end of the twenty-first century
	Huo R.; Li L.; Chen H.; Xu C.-Y.; Chen J.; Guo S.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	567
结束页码	588
卷号	34 期号:2
英文摘要	In this study, we aim to better understand the current and future projections of precipitation extremes in Europe in the context of climatic variability over a long-term period from the last millennium to the end of the twenty-first century. The daily gridded precipitation data from five global climate models (GCMs) of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are chosen to investigate natural variability and precipitation extremes during the last millennium (850-1849), the historical (1850-2005) period, and two representative concentration pathway (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) scenarios (2006-99). First, the seasonal and annual precipitation and extreme statistics from GCMs are evaluated using reconstruction and observation. Second, the spatial and temporal patterns of extreme precipitation from GCMs are investigated from the last millennium to the end of the twenty-first century. Meanwhile, the characteristic changes of extreme precipitation for the five regions of Europe are further analyzed. The results revealed the following: GCMs underestimate extreme precipitation and overestimate mean precipitation compared with the observations from European Climate Assessment and Dataset (ECA&D); the majority of Europe except southern Europe will most likely have large magnitude increases in the extreme precipitation and mean precipitation in the future under both RCP scenarios; there is no systematic change of precipitation extremes from the last millennium to the historical period from all GCMs; and larger magnitude increases are shown in 100- and 200-yr than in 5- and 10-yr return period precipitation from both RCP scenarios. In addition, short-duration extreme precipitation will most likely increase more than longer-duration extremes. © 2020 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).
英文关键词	Climate change; Large dataset; Precipitation (meteorology); Annual precipitation; Climatic variability; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Extreme precipitation; Global climate model; Natural variability; Precipitation extremes; Spatial and temporal patterns; Climate models; climate prediction; climate variation; CMIP; extreme event; long-term change; paleoclimate; precipitation (climatology); twenty first century; Europe
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170964
作者单位	State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Hubei Provincial Key Lab of Water System Science for Sponge City Construction, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China; NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway; State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Hubei Provincial Key Lab of Water System Science for Sponge City Construction, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China; Department of Geography and Geographic Information Science, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, United States; Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway; State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Huo R.,Li L.,Chen H.,et al. Extreme precipitation changes in Europe from the last millennium to the end of the twenty-first century[J],2021,34(2).
APA	Huo R.,Li L.,Chen H.,Xu C.-Y.,Chen J.,&Guo S..(2021).Extreme precipitation changes in Europe from the last millennium to the end of the twenty-first century.Journal of Climate,34(2).
MLA	Huo R.,et al."Extreme precipitation changes in Europe from the last millennium to the end of the twenty-first century".Journal of Climate 34.2(2021).