气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): How reliable are decadal climate predictions of near-surface air temperature?

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0138.1
	How reliable are decadal climate predictions of near-surface air temperature?
	Verfaillie D.; Doblas-Reyes F.J.; Donat M.G.; Pérez-Zanón N.; Solaraju-Murali B.; Torralba V.; Wild S.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	697
结束页码	713
卷号	34 期号:2
英文摘要	Decadal climate predictions are being increasingly used by stakeholders interested in the evolution of climate over the coming decade. However, investigating the added value of those initialized decadal predictions over other sources of information typically used by stakeholders generally relies on forecast accuracy, while probabilistic aspects, although crucial to users, are often overlooked. In this study, the quality of the near-surface air temperature from initialized predictions has been assessed in terms of reliability, an essential characteristic of climate simulation ensembles, and compared to the reliability of noninitialized simulations performed with the same model ensembles. Here, reliability is defined as the capability to obtain a true estimate of the forecast uncertainty from the ensemble spread. We show the limited added value of initialization in terms of reliability, the initialized predictions being significantly more reliable than their noninitialized counterparts only for specific regions and the first forecast year. By analyzing reliability for different forecast system ensembles, we further highlight the fact that the combination of models seems to play a more important role than the ensemble size of each individual forecast system. This is due to sampling different model errors related to model physics, numerics, and initialization approaches involved in the multimodel, allowing for a certain level of error compensation. Finally, this study demonstrates that all forecast system ensembles are affected by systematic biases and dispersion errors that affect the reliability. This set of errors makes bias correction and calibration necessary to obtain reliable estimates of forecast probabilities that can be useful to stakeholders. © 2020 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).
英文关键词	Atmospheric temperature; Atmospheric thermodynamics; Climatology; Error compensation; Forecasting; Reliability; Systematic errors; Uncertainty analysis; Climate simulation; Decadal predictions; Essential characteristic; Forecast probabilities; Forecast uncertainty; Near surface air temperature; Probabilistic aspects; Sources of informations; Climate models; accuracy assessment; air temperature; climate modeling; climate prediction; decadal variation; ensemble forecasting; reliability analysis; surface temperature; uncertainty analysis; weather forecasting
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170950
作者单位	Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain; Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats, Barcelona, Spain; Earth and Life Institute, Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Verfaillie D.,Doblas-Reyes F.J.,Donat M.G.,et al. How reliable are decadal climate predictions of near-surface air temperature?[J],2021,34(2).
APA	Verfaillie D..,Doblas-Reyes F.J..,Donat M.G..,Pérez-Zanón N..,Solaraju-Murali B..,...&Wild S..(2021).How reliable are decadal climate predictions of near-surface air temperature?.Journal of Climate,34(2).
MLA	Verfaillie D.,et al."How reliable are decadal climate predictions of near-surface air temperature?".Journal of Climate 34.2(2021).