气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Autumn arctic pacific sea ice dipole as a source of predictability for subsequent spring barents sea ice condition

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0172.1
	Autumn arctic pacific sea ice dipole as a source of predictability for subsequent spring barents sea ice condition
	Liang Y.-C.; Kwon Y.-O.; Frankignoul C.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	787
结束页码	804
卷号	34 期号:2
英文摘要	This study uses observational and reanalysis datasets in 1980-2016 to show a close connection between a boreal autumn sea ice dipole in the Arctic Pacific sector and sea ice anomalies in the Barents Sea (BS) during the following spring. The September-October Arctic Pacific sea ice dipole variations are highly correlated with the subsequent April-May BS sea ice variations (r 5 0.71). The strong connection between the regional sea ice variabilities across the Arctic uncovers a new source of predictability for spring BS sea ice prediction at 7-month lead time. A cross-validated linear regression prediction model using the Arctic Pacific sea ice dipole with 7-month lead time is demonstrated to have significant prediction skills with 0.54-0.85 anomaly correlation coefficients. The autumn sea ice dipole, manifested as sea ice retreat in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas and expansion in the East Siberian and Laptev Seas, is primarily forced by preceding atmospheric shortwave anomalies from late spring to early autumn. The spring BS sea ice increases are mostly driven by an ocean-to-sea ice heat flux reduction in preceding months, associated with reduced horizontal ocean heat transport into the BS. The dynamical linkage between the two regional sea ice anomalies is suggested to involve positive stratospheric polar cap anomalies during autumn and winter, with its center slowly moving toward Greenland. The migration of the stratospheric anomalies is followed in midwinter by a negative North Atlantic Oscillation-like pattern in the troposphere, leading to reduced ocean heat transport into the BS and sea ice extent increase. © 2020 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).
英文关键词	Atmospheric pressure; Forecasting; Heat flux; Heat transfer; Oceanography; Predictive analytics; Anomaly correlations; Dipole variations; Highly-correlated; North Atlantic oscillations; Ocean heat transport; Regression predictions; Sea ice extent; Sea ice retreats; Sea ice; atmospheric circulation; autumn; climate prediction; heat transfer; oceanic circulation; sea ice; seasonal variation; Arctic Ocean; Barents Sea
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170949
作者单位	Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, United States; Sorbonne Université, UPMC, CNRS, IRD, MNHN, LOCEAN, IPSL, Paris, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liang Y.-C.,Kwon Y.-O.,Frankignoul C.. Autumn arctic pacific sea ice dipole as a source of predictability for subsequent spring barents sea ice condition[J],2021,34(2).
APA	Liang Y.-C.,Kwon Y.-O.,&Frankignoul C..(2021).Autumn arctic pacific sea ice dipole as a source of predictability for subsequent spring barents sea ice condition.Journal of Climate,34(2).
MLA	Liang Y.-C.,et al."Autumn arctic pacific sea ice dipole as a source of predictability for subsequent spring barents sea ice condition".Journal of Climate 34.2(2021).