气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Relative importance of internal climate variability versus anthropogenic climate change in global climate change

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0424.1
	Relative importance of internal climate variability versus anthropogenic climate change in global climate change
	Chen J.; Li X.; Martel J.-L.; Brissette F.P.; Zhang X.J.; Frei A.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0894-8755
起始页码	465
结束页码	478
卷号	34 期号:2
英文摘要	To better understand the role of internal climate variability (ICV) in climate change impact studies, this study quantifies the importance of ICV [defined as the intermember variability of a single model initial-condition large ensemble (SMILE)] in relation to the anthropogenic climate change (ACC; defined as multimodel ensemble mean) in global and regional climate change using a criterion of time of emergence (ToE). The uncertainty of the estimated ToE is specifically investigated by using three SMILEs to estimate the ICV. The results show that using 1921-40 as a baseline period, the annual mean precipitation ACC is expected to emerge within this century over extratropical regions as well as along the equatorial band. However, ToEs are unlikely to occur, even by the end of this century, over intratropical regions outside of the equatorial band. In contrast, annual mean temperature ACC has already emerged from the temperature ICV for most of the globe. Similar spatial patterns are observed at the seasonal scale, while a weaker ACC for boreal summer (June-August) precipitation and additional ICV for boreal winter (December-February) temperature translate to later ToEs for some regions. In addition, the uncertainty of ToE related to the choice of a SMILE is mostly less than 20 years for annual mean precipitation and temperature. However, it can be as large as 90 years for annual mean precipitation over some regions. Overall, results indicate that the choice of a SMILE is a significant source of uncertainty in the estimation of ToE and results based on only one SMILE should be interpreted with caution. © 2020 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).
英文关键词	Climate models; Uncertainty analysis; Annual mean precipitation; Annual mean temperatures; Anthropogenic climate changes; Climate change impact; Global climate changes; Internal climate variability; Multi-model ensemble; Regional climate changes; Climate change; air temperature; anthropogenic effect; climate change; decadal variation; ensemble forecasting; precipitation assessment; uncertainty analysis
语种	英语
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/170942
作者单位	State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, China; Hubei Key Laboratory of Water System Science for Sponge City Construction, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China; École de technologie supérieure, Université du Québec, Montréal, QC, Canada; Lasalle/NHC, Montréal, QC, Canada; USDA Agricultural Research Service, Grazinglands Research Laboratory, El Reno, OK, United States; Institute for Sustainable Cities, Department of Geography, Hunter College, City University of New York, New York, NY, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chen J.,Li X.,Martel J.-L.,et al. Relative importance of internal climate variability versus anthropogenic climate change in global climate change[J],2021,34(2).
APA	Chen J.,Li X.,Martel J.-L.,Brissette F.P.,Zhang X.J.,&Frei A..(2021).Relative importance of internal climate variability versus anthropogenic climate change in global climate change.Journal of Climate,34(2).
MLA	Chen J.,et al."Relative importance of internal climate variability versus anthropogenic climate change in global climate change".Journal of Climate 34.2(2021).